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Strategy Blog
Germany faces political uncertainty as coalition negotiations unfold, but its European commitments remain intact. Meanwhile, market impact from President Trump’s Ukraine rhetoric appears limited, with European defence spending set to rise as expected.
Kevin Gardiner
Market Perspective
In this Market Perspective we examine President Trump’s economic policies, geopolitical risks, and market dynamics. As well as the potential impacts on global markets, trade relationships, and investment strategies.
Kevin Gardiner, Victor Balfour, Anthony Abrahamian
Germany’s election looms, with coalition uncertainty and economic stagnation key concerns. Market impact depends on global trade, policy shifts, fiscal decisions, and investor confidence amid political change.
Victor Balfour
Major economies continue to grow, and debt remains manageable. Market fears of a debt spiral appear overstated, with policy flexibility and global demand for government bonds providing long-term financial stability and resilience.
The US has imposed new tariffs on key trade partners, prompting retaliation. While inflationary short-term, their broader economic impact remains uncertain. Policy shifts, negotiations, and consumer responses will shape long-term consequences for global trade and growth.
Trump has wasted little time getting his feet under the desk. His protectionist approach targets the trade deficit but risks inflation and supply chain disruptions. While the US holds negotiating leverage, lasting economic benefits remain uncertain.
Insights
Professionals have a lot of questions about their finances and often do not have the time to manage them alone. In this article we wanted to discuss some of the questions we are asked most frequently and offer some guidance on the key factors you should consider.
Alex Williams
President Trump wants a weaker dollar to 'Make America Great Again'. However, the current strong dollar reflects the US's economic strength and investor confidence. In this strategy blog we evaluate the reasons behind Trump's ideology.
Anthony Abrahamian
2024 saw friendly economics with falling interest rates. US stocks outperformed the rest of the world. Trump's imminent return influenced market sentiment. Bonds fluctuated amid interest rate changes, and the US dollar strengthened significantly.
Victor Balfour, Anthony Abrahamian
Quarterly Letter
We are often asked why we focus on wealth preservation. We know growth is important, but we also want to achieve this in a prudent way and avoid any irrecoverable losses on the way. In this Quarterly Letter, we discuss some of the ways we try to do that.
Helen Watson
Brutal geopolitics and gentle economics passed this year like two ships in the night, with portfolios following in the wake of the latter. After healthy returns in 2024, we now look ahead to 2025 with unusually equivocal views on the big three assets.
We have just witnessed the collapse of the French government, the brief announcement of martial law in South Korea and a relaunch of the UK's new government. In this strategy blog we assess how this ongoing political change could affect the global economy.
Financial markets are often volatile and can be hard to predict over the short term. However, staying invested over longer time periods can help minimise this volatility. In this article we explore how timing the market and getting it wrong can impact your wealth.
Hugh Billett
Inflation has been sticky in the final leg of its descent. In this strategy blog we look towards 2025 to assess the challenges facing policymakers and the outlook for consumer prices. We examine the cost of energy, food, goods and services in the year ahead.
Emotions can be very persuasive, especially where money is concerned. In this article, we look at why some people have reservations about investing for the first time, or increasing the amount they have invested. We explain how creating and sticking to a plan can help.
Poppy Foster
President Trump’s upcoming return to the White House has brought much noise with it. In this Market Perspective we look at the impact the new presidency could have on markets. We also discuss how the global economy deals with debt, rates and tariffs.
The Rothschild family’s connection to Manchester stretches back to 1799. In this special article we explore the historic ties between the family and the city, and how Rothschild & Co continues to support innovation and entrepreneurship in Manchester to this day.
Peter Hindle, Lewis Treacy
Wealth can offer a lot of benefits to a family, but can also bring pressure. A long-term financial plan should ensure your wealth is protected against inflation and is in the best position to grow. In this article, we will talk you through a 60-year financial plan.
US stocks are up over a fifth in 2024, and on track for another year of double-digit returns. President-elect Donald Trump has buoyed the market with the promise of lower taxes and deregulation. In this strategy blog we explore the outlook for the US stock market.
Donald Trump will be the 47th President of the United States. In this strategy blog we consider the markets’ immediate reaction to President Trump’s return to the White House and discuss three key areas that could affect his presidency: tariffs, taxes… and talk.
The Japanese election was not without incident as the incumbent Liberal Democratic Party gained the most votes but failed to achieve a majority. In this strategy blog we examine the outlook for Japan’s economy and the impact the vote could have on its stock market.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has delivered her first Budget, and it was a statement that included few surprises. In this strategy blog we consider the scale of the tax changes announced, the potential economic consequences and the immediate reaction of markets.
The US economy and its capital markets continue to dominate global thinking, but how long can that last? The US market has, in total return terms, outperformed the rest of the world, by roughly 200% since 2007. In this strategy blog we ask: what happens next?
We are now entering the final act of this dramatic 60th presidential election. The polls are too close to call, yet the candidates’ positions could hardly be more polarised. In this election essay we examine the potential economic repercussions of the upcoming vote.
Earnings season is upon us, beginning with the US major banks. While analysts are expecting a fifth consecutive quarter of growth, will this spread to other sectors and regions? This strategy blog considers the outlook for the US, plus UK, Europe and Japan.
Entrepreneurs
We know that every entrepreneurial journey is different, but there are lessons that all founders can learn from each other. In this series of video interviews, we asked the founders of three successful companies to share their experiences and offer practical advice.
Sophie Kilvert
Spreading conflict in the Middle East is alarming, particularly when viewed alongside other ongoing geopolitical challenges. While there are no infallible guides to how global markets will respond, in this blog we discuss some of the potential economic consequences.
It seems enough is enough for Beijing’s policymakers. After a series of half measures in recent years, the government and central bank have announced with a multi-pronged attempt to stimulate the market and revive the sluggish economy. We examine the outlook for China.
Adapting to change isn't easy. It requires a willingness to experiment, get things wrong and reflect honestly about how to improve. In this Quarterly Letter, we explore the importance of experimentation, and how looking back helps us to get better at looking forward.
A new report for the European Commission examines the ways countries or regions can become more productive. In this strategy blog we consider what countries like the US and Switzerland have done right, and how the UK and other European nations could improve.
Within 50 years there may not be enough soil left to grow food to feed the world, and more than half of the world’s agricultural land has already degraded. In our third Sustainability Sphere we asked how companies and individuals can address these challenges.
Laura Negus
The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the first time since March 2020. The response from markets has generally been positive, but what happens next? In this strategy blog we examine the likelihood of further interest rate cuts in the short term and beyond.
Which of the big three Western central banks is most likely to have to reverse their pending rate cuts? In this strategy blog we examine the market expectations form the Fed, European Central Bank and the Bank of England, and outline our own views.
Relocating to Guernsey is attractive due to its natural beauty and high quality of life. But we know that moving is a big decision. In this article we answer some common questions about moving to the island and provide information on how we can help you relocate.
Nathan Long
In the Journey to Success report, we speak to the inspiring founders of Bare Biology, Two Chicks and Seraphine about their businesses and consider how founders should approach their corporate and personal finances along the way.
Following last months disappointing report, and the market volatility which has since followed, we look ahead to Friday's highly anticipated US jobs report and discuss whether there is any cause for concern.
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