Insights

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: The Fed resumes easing

The Fed cut rates amid strong demand and inflation, signaling more easing ahead despite resilient growth, market optimism, and rising geopolitical, valuation, and policy risks. Markets remain buoyant, but concerns over economic cracks and overvaluation suggest caution as financial conditions loosen and geopolitical tensions persist.

Victor Balfour

18/09/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: Entente Misérable?

Britain and France face political instability, weak economies, and rising populism. Yet, despite fiscal strains and public discontent, markets remain resilient, and long-term debt challenges may still be manageable.

Kevin Gardiner

17/09/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: France - budgets and bonds

France faces political uncertainty as PM Bayrou’s minority government risks collapse ahead of a 8 September confidence vote. Budget issues, rising populism, and high debt challenge stability, but market impacts remain limited—for now.

Kevin Gardiner

01/09/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: China: the long and winding road

China’s stock market is up ~28% in 2025, outperforming globally, but structural issues persist. Property woes, deflation risks, and geopolitical tensions cloud the outlook despite resilient exports and targeted policy support.

Victor Balfour

29/08/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: Paying for our pensions

Despite fears, pensions aren't doomed. The real issue is economic output, not savings. Growth depends on labour, innovation, and productivity—not demographics alone. Misframed debates risk worsening outcomes unnecessarily.

Kevin Gardiner

27/08/2025

Market Perspective

Wealth Management: Market Perspective - Passionately unconvinced

In this Market Perspective, resilient markets continue to mask global uncertainty. AI optimism fuels tech stock momentum, but valuations remain stretched. With inflation sticky and tariffs rising, strategic caution persists in a shifting investment landscape.

Kevin Gardiner, Victor Balfour, Anthony Abrahamian

21/08/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: The return of the gold bugs

Gold has surged over 25% in 2025, outperforming major asset classes. Its rise defies traditional drivers like real yields and the dollar, instead reflecting geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and investor uncertainty.

Victor Balfour

12/08/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: (Re)emerging market stocks?

Emerging market stocks are outperforming developed markets in 2025, driven by broad-based earnings growth. Especially in Asia, amid stable currencies, improved fundamentals, and renewed investor sentiment.

Anthony Abrahamian

29/07/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: Trump and the US labour market

Trump’s immigration and government downsizing policies have had limited labour market impact so far, though mass deportations could pose economic risks. Employment remains strong, with low unemployment and steady job growth.

Anthony Abrahamian

15/07/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: Trump tariffs - latest

Trump threatens new tariffs from August; markets react cautiously. Compromise expected, but trade tensions, volatility, and uncertainty remain elevated globally.

Kevin Gardiner

14/07/2025

Insights

Wealth Management: The unseen economy: Powering civilisation sustainably

Rothschild & Co Wealth Management hosted Ed Conway and Fiona Howarth to explore how six key materials - sand, salt, iron, copper, oil, and lithium - underpin sustainability, and the global transition to cleaner energy.

Richard Brass, Nana Baffour, CEnv

09/07/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: Stablecoin scepticism

Bitcoin dominates crypto’s $3.4tn market but lacks utility, stability, and intrinsic value. Stablecoins may offer a more viable, less volatile path for decentralized digital payments and broader financial inclusion.

Victor Balfour

08/07/2025

Insights

Wealth Management: How to prepare the next generation for wealth

No parent wants to pass on wealth to their children and watch them fritter it away. Here’s how to give your family the best chance in life while ensuring your wealth is protected for generations to come.

Katharine Taylor

07/07/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: Living on a prayer?

Capital markets have outperformed expectations in 2025, despite political and economic turbulence. While risks remain, resilient fundamentals and cautious optimism support current valuations.

Kevin Gardiner

03/07/2025

Quarterly Letter

Wealth Management: Quarterly Letter: Our investment lifecycle

Rooted in our long-term philosophy, this Quarterly Letter explores the full arc of an investment - from idea generation to divestment. Illustrated through a case study of Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC).

Helen Watson

01/07/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: Pork-barrel politics

President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” proposes ~$3tn in tax cuts and spending, plausibly one of the single biggest fiscal handouts in US history. However, there are ongoing political and economic considerations.

Victor Balfour

30/06/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: Five observations from stock markets in 2025

Led by Europe, global equities rose 7% in 2025, despite volatility and AI stock fatigue. Valuations remain elevated, but earnings growth persists amid easing trade tensions and broader market participation.

Anthony Abrahamian

20/06/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: Middle East conflict

Middle East tensions raise oil price risks, but markets remain calm. History shows geopolitical shocks don’t always trigger financial turmoil. Oil could surge—or fall—depending on conflict spread and trade disruptions.

Kevin Gardiner, Anthony Abrahamian

19/06/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: Why have long-term interest rates risen?

Long-term interest rates are rising due to inflation expectations, debt concerns, and technical market factors, despite falling short-term rates and easing trade tensions.

Kevin Gardiner

02/06/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: Interest rates: further room to fall?

Central banks are taking different paths: the Fed and BoE are cautious, while the ECB and SNB are expected to cut rates. Markets expect gradual easing, but inflation may keep policy tighter.

Anthony Abrahamian

30/05/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: Supply chains: state of play

President Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda threatens global trade. Despite rerouted exports and rising costs, supply chains remain resilient, though pressure may grow if tariffs persist.

Anthony Abrahamian

22/05/2025

Entrepreneurs

Wealth Management: Strategic exits: an introduction and guide to optimising your exit

Achieving a successful business exit is a significant milestone, and navigating this complex process requires careful planning and expert advice. We are proud to support Boardwave in its mission of accelerating success by offering insights and guidance on optimising exits for entrepreneurs.

Jake van Beever

20/05/2025

Market Perspective

Wealth Management: Market Perspective - Trump II: FAQs

In this Market Perspective we discuss the economic impact of Trump's second term, focusing on tariffs, inflation, and market volatility, while highlighting potential geopolitical shifts and the uncertain outlook for global growth and investment strategies.

Kevin Gardiner, Victor Balfour, Anthony Abrahamian

12/05/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: Tariffs: Assessing initial manufacturing damage

President Trump's 2 April 2025 tariff announcement raised recession fears, with the manufacturing PMI dipping to 49.8. Although this is still ahead of the big 21st century setbacks - which saw PMI slump to below 40.

Anthony Abrahamian

08/05/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: Trump Tariffs = earnings downgrades

The first-quarter US earnings season is solid but overshadowed by post-quarter ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs. Tariffs harm the economy, raising costs and reducing spending. Earnings estimates adjust slowly, and the impact may take time to reflect.

Anthony Abrahamian

23/04/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: The dollar - down but not out

The dollar weakened despite initial strength from Trump’s trade policies. Skepticism about the administration’s credibility and potential shifts in global reserve currency status contributed to its decline. The dollar’s future remains uncertain amid ongoing economic and governance issues in Europe.

Kevin Gardiner

17/04/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: Don't just do something, stand there

The last 24 hours highlight the dangers of reactive investing. Despite market volatility from tariffs and trades, the S&P500 saw a major rally. Investors should remain cautious, sticking to their plans amid geopolitical uncertainties and market fluctuations.

Kevin Gardiner

10/04/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: Liberation Day - first thoughts

President Trump's proposed tariffs could raise US rates from 2-3%, to over 20%, the highest level since the 1930's. The tariffs might raise around 2% of US GDP in revenue, potentially making the difference between growth and recession.

Kevin Gardiner

03/04/2025

Quarterly Letter

Wealth Management: Quarterly Letter - Looking to the long term

Our view of the long term is indelibly shaped by our 200-year history as a business. In this Quarterly Letter, we re-emphasise what 'long term' means to us, and how it shapes our approach to wealth management and investing.

Helen Watson

01/04/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: UK Spring Statement

The UK's Spring Statement has minimal economic and financial impact. Global investment portfolios should remain unaffected. Only from 2028/9 does policy become more restrictive than it was, with welfare cuts and fiscal tightening.

Kevin Gardiner

26/03/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: The US consumer: living with Trump

President Trump's recent policies, including tariffs and federal spending cuts, have increased market uncertainty and dampened consumer confidence. Despite these challenges, consumer spending has remained resilient.

Anthony Abrahamian

25/03/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: Germany votes for growth

Germany's Bundesrat has approved a substantial infrastructure and defense spending package, amounting to €1 trillion over 12 years, aimed at boosting economic growth, addressing infrastructure needs, and enhancing European defense capabilities.

Victor Balfour

24/03/2025

Insights

Wealth Management: Conscientious extraction: forging a greener path for responsible mining

Metals are crucial for daily life and the economy. Our fourth Sustainability Sphere discusses sustainable mining practices. Technology and mining share a symbiotic relationship; and they can drive each other towards a greener, zero-carbon future.

Laura Negus

19/03/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: Taking stock: a macro update

Trade tensions and President Trumps policies have caused market volatility. With global stocks down 7%, investors remain cautious amid uncertainty, with defensive sectors outperforming cyclical ones. European markets show resilience.

Victor Balfour

12/03/2025

Macro Scorecard

Wealth Management: National economic performance ranked: a macro scorecard

Global economic performance varies widely, but perceptions often differ from reality. Our latest macro scorecard ranks major economies, offering an objective perspective on prosperity, durability, and fairness across 16 nations.

Kevin Gardiner, Victor Balfour, Anthony Abrahamian

03/03/2025

Strategy Blog

Wealth Management: Strategy blog: China: sentiment turns a corner

Chinese equities have rebounded, supported by AI advances and policy stimulus. Economic growth remains solid, though property challenges and trade risks persist. Investor confidence hinges on government intervention easing and geopolitical tensions remaining contained.

Anthony Abrahamian

25/02/2025