Insights

In recent years, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has taken centre stage, fuelled by spectacular promises and applications that are now very much a reality. We have already noted on several occasions that this revolution is underpinned by less visible building blocks, such as strategic metals, data centres and electricity grids. Recent developments invite us to broaden that perspective even further.

Many business owners accumulate cash without a clear strategy. By separating operational, reserve and surplus capital, businesses can improve resilience, reduce concentration risk, manage tax considerations more effectively, and ensure excess cash supports longer-term business and personal objectives.

Japan’s yen has weakened sharply, reviving concerns over carry-trade unwinding and global market volatility. Yet Japan’s stronger growth, rising wages, higher inflation, corporate reforms, and improving shareholder focus suggest a structural economic revival, though sustained profitability remains the key test.

With soil degradation threatening food security, regenerative agriculture offers proven solutions. Success depends on valuing nature, supporting farmers, empowering consumers, and aligning incentives across policymakers, businesses, investors and growers.

Populism is reshaping politics across the US and Europe, drawing parties away from the traditional centre. Rather than left versus right, voters increasingly divide along establishment versus anti-establishment lines, creating opportunities for populist movements and challenging conventional political assumptions.

After a strong start to the year for the fixed income markets, the environment has gradually become more complex. Yet the credit market initially benefited from a favorable environment: resilient global growth, gradual disinflation, and central banks perceived as likely to ease monetary policy.

Against a backdrop of resilience of the global economy and the rise of artificial intelligence, Didier Bouvignies reflects on the key drivers behind the first-half market rally and shares his outlook for the second half.

The second quarter of 2026 marked an important turning point for European equities. Following the correction at the end of March, driven by concerns over a prolonged energy shock, markets gradually regained visibility as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased and energy prices declined.

As we head into the summer, the second half of 2026 looks set to be defined less by any single crisis than by continuing geopolitical shifts across multiple arenas. The simmering conflict in the Gulf continues. US politics is entering an important phase as we approach the midterms. Across Europe, populist sentiment is increasingly setting the national agenda, as the EU continues to double down on Made in Europe. Running through all of this is a steady erosion of trust between traditional partners that is pushing countries to hedge, diversify and act in their own self-interest.

While geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation continue to shape the global economic landscape, developments in energy markets have reduced some of the most immediate threats to growth and inflation.

Through deep research and direct engagement with businesses, we seek high-quality companies with strong competitive advantages, disciplined capital allocation and the ability to compound wealth over time.

Significant wealth brings complex financial and personal decisions. Rothschild & Co helps coordinate trusted advisers, ensuring aligned, objective guidance, long-term planning and access to specialist expertise through a personalised advisory board.

Following Keir Starmer’s resignation, Andy Burnham has emerged as Labour’s likely successor. Despite political uncertainty, markets remain calm, with economic and geopolitical trends outweighing domestic politics. Significant policy change appears unlikely.

Markets are preparing for a wave of megacap IPOs led by SpaceX, amid strong AI-driven optimism. While liquidity should absorb issuance comfortably, questions remain around valuations, passive investing, concentration risk and index influence.

The latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory.

Global markets remain resilient despite geopolitical tension and rising energy prices, supported by strong earnings and AI-driven optimism. However, elevated valuations, uneven sector dynamics and evolving inflation risks reinforce the importance of disciplined, long-term positioning within an uncertain macroeconomic environment.

A long-term, disciplined approach to investing prioritises quality companies and wealth preservation over short-term trends. Amid significant changes to tax rules—particularly around inheritance and estates—careful planning, regular review, and close collaboration with advisers remain essential to achieving sustainable outcomes.

The latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory.

Global supply chains face rising stress but remain resilient. Hormuz disruption halted key energy flows, prompting rerouting. Delivery times have lengthened slightly, shipping rates remain contained, and trade volumes stay healthy. Overall pressure is rising, though far below pandemic-era supply chain disruption.

Despite unresolved conflict and high human costs, markets rebound as investors look beyond short-term risks. Economic data and earnings remain resilient, oil shocks appear contained, and longer-term outlooks seem largely unchanged—for now, for equities overall.

Despite war, blockades and oil near $100, global equities hit highs. Stagflation fears echo 1973 and 2022, but today’s shocks look smaller and shorter-lived. With earnings resilient and rates nearer neutral, markets may keep looking past geopolitical risks for now.

The latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory reviews an extraordinary February. $181bn raised in US Growth equity was the biggest monthly total ever, a 24-fold yoy increase and means YTD US fundraising of $216bn is just $18bn short of the total for all of 2025. Into March conflict in Iran is leading to volatile public markets.

Rothschild & Co Redburn analysts unpack all this and more in the twentieth‑anniversary Redburn Review.

Against the backdrop of Middle East conflict, energy disruptions are lifting inflation expectations, pressuring stocks and bonds. Markets now price fewer rate cuts, though growth risks may temper inflation. From here, equities look more vulnerable than bonds overall for now.

A sharp divide has emerged beneath headline markets, with AI expectations driving a widening gap between winners and laggards. While infrastructure beneficiaries lead, software and other knowledge-based sectors face mounting pressure as disruption fears outpace observable change.

Amid rapid shifts driven by AI, changing market leaders and stretched tech valuations, we break down the forces steering today’s investment landscape. From gold’s standout run to a weakening dollar and renewed geopolitical debate, we show why staying disciplined and anchored in fundamentals is key to navigating 2026.

This is the latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory. The US growth equity market grew 2.1x by value in 2025 to $234bn (2024 $109.7bn). The growth was fuelled by AI raises which grew 3.3x yoy and accounted for 57% of total proceeds. Europe, where the AI effect was less marked and the leading sector was software, saw the value of raises grow by 44% in 2025 to $49.2bn.

Equity markets remain resilient despite geopolitical turmoil, supported by robust earnings and high US margins. Growth is broadening across sectors and regions, though sustaining elevated US profitability may prove challenging as conditions evolve further ahead.