Insights

Uncertainty is a constant in markets, not an exception. What matters is how it is approached. In this edition of Insights, we consider how structure, preparation and a long-term perspective can help anchor decision-making when conditions are less predictable

Despite unresolved conflict and high human costs, markets rebound as investors look beyond short-term risks. Economic data and earnings remain resilient, oil shocks appear contained, and longer-term outlooks seem largely unchanged—for now, for equities overall.

Despite war, blockades and oil near $100, global equities hit highs. Stagflation fears echo 1973 and 2022, but today’s shocks look smaller and shorter-lived. With earnings resilient and rates nearer neutral, markets may keep looking past geopolitical risks for now.

Markets move in cycles driven by psychology; predicting turns is futile. Disciplined long‑term investing in quality businesses, valuing fundamentals over hype, helps preserve and grow wealth through booms and busts.

The global economy is characterised by a fragile combination of resilience and vulnerability, with the US continuing to act as the main anchor of global growth. Markets are facing an environment in which inflation dynamics remain uneven and geopolitics have re-emerged as a central source of risk, while resilience is increasingly concentrated in a narrow set of drivers – most notably artificial intelligence.

The latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory reviews an extraordinary February. $181bn raised in US Growth equity was the biggest monthly total ever, a 24-fold yoy increase and means YTD US fundraising of $216bn is just $18bn short of the total for all of 2025. Into March conflict in Iran is leading to volatile public markets.

A sharp divide has emerged beneath headline markets, with AI expectations driving a widening gap between winners and laggards. While infrastructure beneficiaries lead, software and other knowledge-based sectors face mounting pressure as disruption fears outpace observable change.

Amid rapid shifts driven by AI, changing market leaders and stretched tech valuations, we break down the forces steering today’s investment landscape. From gold’s standout run to a weakening dollar and renewed geopolitical debate, we show why staying disciplined and anchored in fundamentals is key to navigating 2026.

Aging and debt fears are overstated. Economies can grow through productivity, sensible policies, and innovation. Debt shifts resources but isn’t catastrophic. Crises stem from liquidity, not insolvency, and gold‑standard nostalgia is misplaced.

The global economy enters 2026 navigating an unusual mix of resilience and structural tension, reflecting the enduring capacity of firms and households to absorb shocks. The key question is how long headwinds from shifting trade policies, geopolitical uncertainty, and weakening labour markets can continue to be offset by tailwinds from surging business investment and ongoing fiscal and monetary support.

Equity markets remain resilient despite geopolitical turmoil, supported by robust earnings and high US margins. Growth is broadening across sectors and regions, though sustaining elevated US profitability may prove challenging as conditions evolve further ahead.

Despite President Trump’s pressure and a criminal probe into Jerome Powell, the Fed’s independence largely held. Market reaction stayed muted, legal limits constrain Trump’s influence, and any politicised rate cuts risk credibility, inflation, and broader financial instability for global markets ahead.

Since WWII, geopolitics split into East and West, but that model may fade. U.S. assertiveness contrasts Europe’s passivity, hinting at three major players. Outcomes remain unpredictable, investors should stay patient amid inherent market complexity and uncertainty.

Succession, when planned early and guided by strong values, ensures continuity and growth. At Rothschild & Co, we emphasize stewardship, transparency, and preparation to help families and businesses navigate transitions confidently.

Despite protectionism, conflict, and fiscal concerns, 2025 delivered resilient growth, falling rates, and easing geopolitical risks. Stocks soared, bonds rebounded, gold surged, and fundamentals strengthened, driving broad market gains despite dollar weakness and fragmented AI-driven momentum.

In our latest geopolitical blog, Mark Sedwill, Chair of Geopolitical Advisory at Rothschild & Co offers his reflections on six strategic reasons for Christmas confidence.

Rothschild & Co Redburn have shared their final review of 2025, where they discuss all these questions, and more.

Despite geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, GDP growth in 2025 proved surprisingly resilient, slowing only slightly compared to 2024. However, vulnerabilities remain, as several factors that have supported the global economy thus far may prove to be temporary.

Five Macro Myths: AI drives U.S. growth but with limits; layoffs fears overstated; Trump’s influence wanes; UK remains stable, not emerging; and year-end market optimism persists despite uncertainty.

The UK budget offers offsetting tax hikes and spending increases, leaving the economy largely unchanged. Growth forecasts dip, inflation target slips to 2027, and later fiscal tightening remains modest.

In this Market Perspective, we examine resilient markets navigating geopolitical strains, sticky inflation, ambitious AI valuations, rising tariffs, and shifting debt dynamics, and why disciplined positioning and strategic agility remain essential for long-term growth.

Longevity, driven by healthy and connected lifestyles, is emerging as a megatrend. It is reshaping economies and opening new avenues for ESG investing.

This is the November 2025 Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory. The market has started to contemplate a potential bubble in AI valuations even as the AI industry continues to drive forward fund raising in US growth equity. In this edition we look at the role of Nvidia, the world’s largest company, in the AI ecosystem and its growth raises, at the accelerating rate of unicorn creation and the improving exit market in 2025.

Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK provides globally diversified, preservation-focused wealth management for US clients. Our bottom-up investment approach prioritises prudent growth and long-term security.

European growth needs more than demand-side fixes, it requires focus on output and products. Innovation, targeted government support, and sustainable production are key to driving inclusive, lasting economic development.

This is the latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory. October 12 2025 marked the third anniversary of the start of the current bull market that has seen the S&P500 rise by c90%, NASDAQ by c120% and the FTSE Venture Capital Index by 170%. At $7.1bn September was the biggest value month in European growth equity raises since 2021 while the $34.9bn ytd total already surpasses full year 2024.YTD US raises are $160.8bn, 1.5x 2024. AI and software lead the way on both sides of the Atlantic.

The 2025 Finance Act abolished the non-dom regime, increasing tax exposure. Former non-doms must reassess investment strategies, consider wrappers, review offshore accounts, and explore the FIG regime for potential tax relief and planning opportunities.

Companies with healthy cultures outperform peers, adapt to change, and deliver exceptional service. Preserving culture through growth ensures stability and continuity, benefiting both clients and the business itself. This Quarterly Letter explores how cultural strengths underpin our approach at Rothschild & Co and guide our investment decisions.