Geopolitics Blog: Christmas Season: Reasons to be cheerful

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Lord Mark Sedwill, Chair of Geopolitical Advisory reflects on six reasons for Christmas cheer…

2025 has seen a reshaping of global trade and led to a revaluation of international relationships, shaped by a stark reassessment of US priorities. Conflicts have evolved, if not been solved. The Trump factor has been defining. 

We're living through peak complexity, not peak danger. Governments everywhere - democratic and autocratic alike - are wrestling with climate and tech change, demographic and economic imbalances, and geopolitical complexity.

Yet notwithstanding the turbulence, there are six strategic reasons for Christmas confidence.

  • US-China competition remains well-managed. Unlike the Cold War’s proxy confrontations, Washington and Beijing deliberately contain their rivalry. From Ukraine to the Middle East to the South China Sea, they have not allowed themselves to be drawn into direct conflict. Taiwan remains the flashpoint to watch (and would have severe economic and business impact), but both powers demonstrate mature restraint.
  • Non-alignment is resurgent: India, Indonesia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and others are determined to pursue their own interests and not be dependent on the two superpowers. Many are robust democracies. Unlike the Cold War, these are now substantial economies, providing strategic ballast in great power competition.
  • The Middle East has stabilised: Iran’s crescent of influence - Lebanon through Syria and Iraq to Afghanistan - has unravelled. Assad’s fall, Hezbollah’s degradation and the 12-day war represent strategic defeat for the region’s primary destabiliser. After a ghastly war with appalling humanitarian consequences, Gaza has subsided. Meanwhile, Gulf states advance economic and social reform at a remarkable pace.
  • Russia has been fought to a standstill in Ukraine: European support now exceeds American. As hybrid warfare intensifies, European NATO will need to respond offensively, not just defensively, and stand by Ukraine not sell them out.
  • Europe is finally awakening: Led by the Eastern Europeans, the 5% GDP commitment to defence and resilience at the latest NATO summit - unthinkable years ago - signals real seriousness. Let’s see if Europe can match it with genuine interoperability of military capability and integration of defence supply.
  • Our gang is bigger and stronger than their gang: Western capability remains overwhelming. NATO, G7, and Five Eyes represent over half global GDP, more of global defence investment and nearly half global trade. Add our decisive soft power advantages: who wants a green card for the CRINKS? If we maintain unity and will, the 21st century remains ours to shape and lead

So, while Western governments confront populism and anti-incumbency that has swept the globe since 2008, the fundamentals favour strategic confidence - if matched by political resolve. That resolve should be the West’s New Year Resolution for 2026. Merry Christmas!