Asset Management: Monthly Macro Insights - February 2026
Global growth remains resilient despite rising structural tensions
The global economy enters 2026 with a surprising degree of resilience, despite persistent trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty and a gradual slowdown in labour markets. Strong investment in artificial intelligence, semiconductors and cloud infrastructure continues to support activity, while fiscal and monetary policies remain broadly accommodative. However, the sustainability of this momentum will depend on whether these growth drivers can continue to offset mounting economic headwinds.
Economic resilience remains highly concentrated across regions. The United States continues to benefit from the technology investment boom, which supports both business spending and consumer demand. China, meanwhile, has relied on strong export performance to compensate for persistent domestic weakness. In contrast, eurozone growth has been more modest and concentrated in a limited number of countries, although fiscal support could help narrow the gap with the US over time.
While global growth has remained robust, employment growth has slowed to levels that historically preceded recessions. Investors nevertheless remain confident that healthy household balance sheets, wealth effects and access to credit can sustain consumption and business confidence. Risks remain elevated, however, particularly if AI-related equity valuations were to correct sharply or if geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation were to intensify.
Another key source of uncertainty is the appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. His recent policy positions have created uncertainty over the future direction of US monetary policy, leaving markets to assess whether the Fed will prioritize inflation control or economic growth. Either path could have significant implications for global financial conditions and investor sentiment in the months ahead.
