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Asset Management: Monthly Macro Insights - November 2025

Published

AI reshapes the economic outlook, but risks are mounting

After years marked by pandemic disruptions, inflation and geopolitical instability, artificial intelligence has emerged as a powerful driver of economic transformation. By improving productivity, automating tasks and enabling new business models, AI could support stronger long-term growth and create opportunities across a wide range of sectors, from manufacturing and healthcare to financial services.

 

A powerful growth engine with growing vulnerabilities

The rapid expansion of AI has fuelled optimism among investors and businesses alike, encouraging investment in technologies such as autonomous systems, personalized medicine and climate-related solutions. However, enthusiasm for the sector has also driven valuations to historically high levels, raising concerns that expectations may be running ahead of fundamentals. A sharp correction in AI-related stocks could have broader consequences for financial markets given the sector’s growing importance in major indices.

Concentration and systemic risks come into focus

Beyond valuation concerns, the AI ecosystem is becoming increasingly concentrated around a small number of dominant companies with access to vast datasets and computing power. Complex relationships between large technology firms, cloud providers and AI startups have created a highly interconnected environment that could amplify financial shocks. At the same time, the growing use of AI-driven trading strategies may exacerbate market volatility during periods of stress.

Central banks navigate an uncertain environment

Against this backdrop, monetary policy remains challenging. While the Federal Reserve continued its easing cycle in October, policymakers remain divided over the appropriate path forward as inflationary pressures persist and the labour market shows signs of cooling. In Europe, the ECB has maintained a cautious stance, balancing resilient inflation in services against a fragile growth outlook. Overall, the economic outlook remains supported by technological innovation, but elevated uncertainty and financial stability risks warrant close attention.

 

Read the Monthly Macro Insights

by Marc-Antoine Collard, Chief Economist and Head of Economic Research

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