Chief Economist and Director of Economic Research
Marc-Antoine is Chief Economist and Director of Economic Research at Rothschild & Co Wealth and Asset Management since 2014. Furthermore, he is lecturer in Economics at Sciences Po Paris since 2012.
Previously, he began his career as an economist at the Department of Finance of Canada (2004-05) in Ottawa and was then recruited as strategist-economist for CDPQ Caisse de Dépôt et Placement du Québec (2005-10). Marc-Antoine moved to France as Country risk economist for the Americas and Middle East, and Head of Commodities Research at Société Générale (2011-14).
Market Commentary
Economic activity remained relatively resilient in early 2025, although this stability was supported by temporary factors. In fact, global growth projections have been revised markedly down in recent weeks, reflecting tariff rates at levels not seen in a century and a highly unpredictable environment, while inflation risks have increased.
Market Commentary
Global growth remained relatively resilient in early 2025. However, front-loading of global trade flows, particularly between Asia and North America, greatly distorted the reality. In fact, stagflation and recession risks have both increased significantly.
Market Commentary
President Donald Trump’s trade-war salvo, the largest act of American protectionism since the 1930s, combined with his foreign policy’s complete shift, are sending significant shockwaves through the global economy. Although the full impact of phenomenal uncertainty is a key unknown, inflation and growth dynamics might well evolve opposite to investor’s Goldilocks scenario.
Market Commentary
A trade conflict with the US’s closest economic partners might begin soon, and all indications are that these actions are a start to a widening trade war. The complete ramifications are unknown, yet the cost of uncertainty could be large and increases the risk of stagflation.
Market Commentary
In 2024, global growth has remained stable and world trade has been recovering, while price pressures continued to ebb. Investors project that this resilience will continue in 2025, with inflation further converging towards central banks’ targets. However, this outlook masks significant differences across sectors and countries, and is surrounded by important uncertainties.
Market Commentary
While global growth has proved resilient to policy tightening, significant divergences have emerged across countries, and the outcome of the US election has increased the risks for that trend to amplify. Furthermore, by choosing not to act on any assumptions about what the incoming US administration might enact, combined with the long and variable lags of monetary policy, the Fed will struggle to contain the economic consequences of Donald Trump’s priorities.
