Insights

In December’s edition we review the biggest deals in growth equity in 2024 on both sides of the Atlantic. A strong end to the year fuelled by AI deals meant our US Deal Monitor recorded 113 raises of $200m+ raising $82bn in 2024, well ahead of 2023’s $44bn. Europe started strongly and then faded. Our Deal Monitor shows a 2024 ytd total of $32.3bn modestly ahead of 2023 with Climate Tech, AI and software leading. Meanwhile Wall Street strategists anticipate a c10% rise in the S&P 500 in 2025.

Redburn Atlantic’s most recent Review explores investment in AI following the conclusion of the hype cycle, the possibility of new trade wars under the second Trump administration, the impact of social media on ecommerce, the rapid rise of Private Markets, ‘Super Tuscan’ Wines, and much more. 

The Macro-Linked Bonds and Governance Linked Bonds introduced in the context of Sri Lanka’s recent debt restructuring include important innovations that significantly enhance the utility of state contingent debt instruments as a means of both accelerating the restructuring process and reducing the risk of future debt distress

While global growth has proved resilient to policy tightening, significant divergences have emerged across countries, and the outcome of the US election has increased the risks for that trend to amplify. Furthermore, by choosing not to act on any assumptions about what the incoming US administration might enact, combined with the long and variable lags of monetary policy, the Fed will struggle to contain the economic consequences of Donald Trump’s priorities.

Global equities rose by 3.7% in November (USD terms), while global government bonds returned 1.1% (USD, hedged terms).

Emotions can be very persuasive, especially where money is concerned. In this article, we look at why some people have reservations about investing for the first time, or increasing the amount they have invested. We explain how creating and sticking to a plan can help.

President Trump’s upcoming return to the White House has brought much noise with it. In this Market Perspective we look at the impact the new presidency could have on markets. We also discuss how the global economy deals with debt, rates and tariffs.

In November's edition, shareholders of VC companies are turning to the secondary market as a tool for interim liquidity. we review recent deals in the buoyant VC secondaries market and look at some of its new dedicated funds. Meanwhile, one in three US venture capital dollars raised in 2024 have gone to AI with more big deals in the offing.

Wealth can offer a lot of benefits to a family, but can also bring pressure. A long-term financial plan should ensure your wealth is protected against inflation and is in the best position to grow. In this article, we will talk you through a 60-year financial plan.

US stocks are up over a fifth in 2024, and on track for another year of double-digit returns. President-elect Donald Trump has buoyed the market with the promise of lower taxes and deregulation. In this strategy blog we explore the outlook for the US stock market.

Donald Trump will be the 47th President of the United States. In this strategy blog we consider the markets’ immediate reaction to President Trump’s return to the White House and discuss three key areas that could affect his presidency: tariffs, taxes… and talk.

The US economy and its capital markets continue to dominate global thinking, but how long can that last? The US market has, in total return terms, outperformed the rest of the world, by roughly 200% since 2007. In this strategy blog we ask: what happens next?

This issue of Insights centres on the U.S. in light of its upcoming elections, featuring insights from our Chief Investment Officer and analyses from our Global Investment Strategist and Fixed Income team. We also share findings from a recent U.S. road trip, explore the potential of robotics, and discuss the evolving U.S.-Swiss relationship.

We are now entering the final act of this dramatic 60th presidential election. The polls are too close to call, yet the candidates’ positions could hardly be more polarised. In this election essay we examine the potential economic repercussions of the upcoming vote.

In October’s edition, we look at the details of OpenAI’s recent $6.6bn raise, who invested and who didn’t, at the financials and at the state of OpenAI as its mission shifts awy from capped profit status. Meanwhile global VC fundraising in Q3 was twice the level of Q1 and September was a robust month for VC backed company raises on both sides of the Atlantic.

Global equities moved higher by 2.3% in September (USD terms), while global government bonds returned 1.1% (USD, hedged terms).

Spreading conflict in the Middle East is alarming, particularly when viewed alongside other ongoing geopolitical challenges. While there are no infallible guides to how global markets will respond, in this blog we discuss some of the potential economic consequences.

It seems enough is enough for Beijing’s policymakers. After a series of half measures in recent years, the government and central bank have announced with a multi-pronged attempt to stimulate the market and revive the sluggish economy. We examine the outlook for China.

Adapting to change isn't easy. It requires a willingness to experiment, get things wrong and reflect honestly about how to improve. In this Quarterly Letter, we explore the importance of experimentation, and how looking back helps us to get better at looking forward.

Redburn Atlantic’s latest Review examines the transformative impact of innovation, including the rapid growth of digital platforms and the future of the chip industry. It also covers the economic implications of housing in the UK, the issues of overtourism, the status of British grammar schools, and offers insights into the NHS, equity markets, and more.​

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the first time since March 2020. The response from markets has generally been positive, but what happens next? In this strategy blog we examine the likelihood of further interest rate cuts in the short term and beyond.

Which of the big three Western central banks is most likely to have to reverse their pending rate cuts? In this strategy blog we examine the market expectations form the Fed, European Central Bank and the Bank of England, and outline our own views.

Global growth is decelerating, but investors expect it will pick up as the impact of monetary policy easing gains traction early next year. Yet, soft landings are hard to track as the early signs of a deceleration look painfully similar to a slide into recession.

In the Journey to Success report, we speak to the inspiring founders of Bare Biology, Two Chicks and Seraphine about their businesses and consider how founders should approach their corporate and personal finances along the way.

Global equities moved higher by 2.5% in August (USD terms), while global government bonds returned 1.0% (USD, hedged terms).

Germany’s economy shrank in the second quarter – and is currently little bigger than it was in 2019. Two big negative supply shocks will have played a major part, but is something more fundamental at play? In this strategy blog we explore the reasons why.

Global temperatures are rising. In this Market Perspective we reflect on some of the long-term economic questions raised by climate change. We examine its recent inflationary effect and some of the practical issues we encounter when trying to invest sustainably.

Global equities moved higher by 1.6% in July (USD terms), while global government bonds returned 1.8% (USD, hedged terms).

As the 33rd Olympic Games kick off in Paris, we explore the experience of winning gold, high-stakes preparation, and retirement from sports through an interview with Britta Heidemann, the first female fencer to achieve the 'golden triple.'

History is littered with examples of people making predictions that later turned out to be inaccurate. How can we become better at forecasting the future? Our Quarterly Letter delves into this topic to investigate some of the perils of making predictions.

Large companies have typically offered far more attractive returns than their smaller counterparts, but that has changed recently. What’s behind the reversal? In this strategy blog we examine the reasons behind the switch and whether this trend is likely to continue.

In the second round of France's parliamentary election, Marine Le Pen's RN unexpectedly fell from first to third place as a result of widespread tactical voting and targeted withdrawals by other parties. In this blog we assess the potential economic impact of the vote.