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Strategy Blog
The Fed cut rates amid strong demand and inflation, signaling more easing ahead despite resilient growth, market optimism, and rising geopolitical, valuation, and policy risks.
Britain and France face political instability, weak economies, and rising populism. Yet, despite fiscal strains and public discontent, markets remain resilient, and long-term debt challenges may still be manageable.
France faces political uncertainty as PM Bayrou’s minority government risks collapse ahead of a 8 September confidence vote.
Monthly Market Summary
Markets extended their rally in August, supported by strong earnings and risk appetite. Inflation and employment trends raise fresh questions amid political and trade tensions.
China’s stock market is up ~28% in 2025, outperforming globally, but structural issues persist.
Market Perspective
Despite a turbulent year, markets remain composed, with most indices beating inflation and global equities near break-even.
Perspectives podcast
August defied expectations, with headlines dominated by tariffs, politics, and a 39% US levy on Swiss exports.
News Article
Gold is having another bumper year. The shiny metal is up by more than a quarter in 2025, and on track for a third consecutive year of double-digit returns – a winning streak not seen since the mid-noughties.
CIO Lens
The US ends its Liberation Day pause with new import tariffs on trading partners.
Carlos Mejia
Global equities rose by 1.4% in July (USD terms), and global government bonds declined by 0.2% (USD, hedged terms).
Market sentiment wavered as new US duties, weak data, and political uncertainty reignited concerns over trade and institutional credibility.
Emerging market stocks are outperforming developed markets in 2025, driven by broad-based earnings growth.
Investment Views
Gold has long stood as a symbol of stability and enduring value. In today’s uncertain world, its relevance feels stronger than ever.
Trump’s policies tightened immigration, but labour market remains strong with low unemployment and steady job growth.
Trump threatens new tariffs from August; markets react cautiously. Compromise expected, but trade tensions, volatility, and uncertainty remain elevated globally.
In the latest edition of Perspectives, we speak with Gabriel Gascon, Head of Private Banking Geneva.
Bitcoin dominates crypto’s $3.4tn market but lacks utility, stability, and intrinsic value. Stablecoins may offer a more viable, less volatile path for decentralized digital payments and broader financial inclusion.
Capital markets have outperformed expectations in 2025, despite political and economic turbulence. While risks remain, resilient fundamentals and cautious optimism support current valuations.
Global equities rose by 4.5% in June (USD terms), and global government bonds returned +0.8% (USD, hedged terms).
President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” proposes ~$3tn in tax cuts and spending, plausibly one of the single biggest fiscal handouts in US history.
Middle East tensions raise oil price risks, but markets remain calm. History shows geopolitical shocks don’t always trigger financial turmoil.
Markets have remained relatively calm despite the recent escalation in geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran.
ESG
2025 finds the Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investment landscape in transition, shaped by shifting policies, mixed fund flows, and continued technological progress.
Business with humanity
Global equities rose by 5.7% in May (USD terms), while global government bond returns were down by 0.5% (USD, hedged terms).
The previous blog shows how market expectations of likely cuts in short-term interest rates have been evolving. Those changes will have had some influence on longer-dated yields too.
In June, major central banks meet: Fed and BoE may pause, while ECB and SNB are expected to cut rates amid diverging policy paths.
We examine the implications of the US budget proposal, renewed tariff tensions, and a cautiously optimistic signal from Germany.
Global supply chains have experienced several shocks in recent years, including a pandemic and war, but have so far proved resilient.
Thematic Insights
As is typical in the tech space, the Cloud is continually evolving. Some major trends are reshaping the ways we use the Cloud, and in particular the development of Generative AI is playing a significant role. In particular, the adoption of generative AI by hyperscalers will create shifts in the ways the Cloud is adopted and utilized.
In this edition, Alice Squires discusses the growing impact of geopolitics on business, the rise of shareholder activism, and the strategic decisions boards must take to manage risk and capitalise on opportunities in an increasingly complex landscape.
In this Market Perspective we offer our answers to some of the investment questions being posed by the idiosyncratic 47th president of the United States.
Talk of recession has moved centre stage following Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2nd.
Despite considerable volatility, it was (just) a positive month for global stocks in dollar terms.
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