CBO long-term US debt projections have improved since 2021 due to small assumption changes, highlighting forecast sensitivity, while rising bond yields reflect inflation and interest rate dynamics, not fiscal concerns.
Financial markets rarely move in isolation. Periods of stress tend to emerge when several pressures unfold simultaneously such as tightening financial conditions, shifting policy expectations, liquidity constraints or sudden repricing of risk.
Global supply chains face rising stress but remain resilient. Hormuz disruption halted key energy flows, prompting rerouting. Delivery times have lengthened slightly, shipping rates remain contained, and trade volumes stay healthy.
In April, global markets rebounded strongly, led by technology stocks, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and renewed energy-driven inflation pressures.