Insights

Idiosyncratic headwinds compounded by losses on its treasury and mortgage-backed security portfolio lead to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Are there signs of contagion? In this Strategy blog, we analyse the situation around the collapse and consider further risks.

Despite cautious central bank communication about the policy outlook, particularly in view of the persistent strength of labour markets, investors were expecting rate cuts in the second half of 2023 amid a fall in global inflation. Yet, recent macroeconomic data has poured cold water on their quick disinflation sanguine view.

This International Women's Day we open the door to the Rothschild Archive. In the latest episode Wealth Management Switzerland's Perspectives podcast, Laura Künlen and Melanie Aspey, Director of the Rothschild Archive, shed light on how the women of the Rothschild family shaped the early days of the business and how their legacy translates till today.

Lower commodity prices, including energy prices, are trickling down to consumers, affecting both sides of the Atlantic slightly differently. In this strategy blog, we examine how the energy crisis has abated a year after the outbreak of war in Ukraine and its impact.

Will there be a recession? Is inflation indeed fading? And is it time for eurozone stocks to outperform? Find out more in the latest instalment of the Perspectives podcast.

As incoming data shows inflation rolling over—despite low unemployment—the good news may not last. But what happens next? In this Strategy Blog, we discuss the state of inflation and why interest rates look more like plateaus than peaks, leaving us at odds with the money markets.

Sinkende Realeinkommen, steigende Inflation und geldpolitische Straffung haben zu einem Gefühl des wirtschaftlichen Fatalismus geführt. In ganz Europa, Großbritannien und den USA deuten jedoch Anzeichen auf eine (hoffnungsvolle) Wendung der Ereignisse hin, die für bessere Aussichten für das kommende Jahr sorgen.

Derzeit profitieren Private Debt-Anleger von attraktiven Renditen von 7 bis 10 % pro Jahr. Wir vergleichen die Merkmale von Private Debt mit anderen festverzinslichen Segmenten und Aktien, zeigen ihre Vorteile auf und untersuchen die Risiken im Falle eines wirtschaftlichen Stressszenarios.

Capital markets experienced a difficult February, as renewed interest rate risk from further monetary tightening moved into focus. Both global equites and government bonds fell last month.

After recent record low interest rates, variable and fixed mortgage rates are surging to levels not seen since the Global Financial Crisis. In this Strategy Blog, we consider whether fixed or variable is the better option in the ever-evolving economic environment.

As expected, a fall in global inflation is underway, but labour markets remain tight. Correspondingly, the dilemma for central banks has become extensively complex.

Der Dezember war ein schwieriger Monat für die Kapitalmärkte, da die Risikobereitschaft trotz besser als erwarteter US-Inflationsdaten nachließ: Die weltweiten Aktienkurse fielen, und auch die weltweiten Staatsanleihen gaben nach.

As a family-run business in its seventh generation, our focus is on the long term: to preserve and grow your wealth not only for this generation but for those to come. In this Quarterly Letter, we discuss the important issues surrounding legacies and succession.

This year has come to a close, but the effects of world events on the market persist. Looking to 2023, we pose two main questions to help determine from an investment perspective whether to put liquidity back to work.

In der 10. Ausgabe von Mosaique Insights werfen wir einen genaueren Blick auf die Schlüsselfragen für 2023 und die Entwicklung der Portfolios im vergangenen Quartal. Außerdem beleuchten wir den Status quo des Ukraine-Kriegs und seine möglichen Wendepunkte und nehmen Sie mit auf eine Reise nach Israel mit dem Leiter unseres neuen Israel-Büros.

This year, industrial action has been on the rise as demands for higher pay to compensate for real wage growth and inflation levels reaching multi-decade highs, causing some to create parallels to the 1970s. In this Strategy Blog, we discuss why we think these parallels are exaggerated.

Im November nahm die Risikobereitschaft der Anleger zu, nachdem die US-Inflationsdaten schwächer als erwartet ausfielen. Dadurch wurde die Erwartung unterstützt, dass die US-Notenbank ihren Zinserhöhungszyklus verlangsamen könnte: globale Aktien und globale Staatsanleihen stiegen deutlich an.

The UK Autumn Statement reflected a near-term loosening of fiscal stance, perhaps a surprise given the general talk of 'Austerity II' beforehand. In this Strategy Blog, we share our thoughts on the statement.

The world economy continues to face strong headwinds. Markets remain hopeful that central banks will soon pause the tightening campaign and give economic activity a breather, although the stubborn persistence of inflation could dampen those hopes.

Im Oktober sorgten die Erwartung langsamerer Zinserhöhungen und eine besser als erwartet ausgefallene Gewinnsaison für einen Stimmungsaufschwung: Die weltweiten Aktienkurse stiegen deutlich an, während die weltweiten Staatsanleihen unverändert blieben.

Private Debt ist eine attraktive Anlagestrategie, jedoch analysieren wir diesmal die Risiken von Private Debt Investments und zeigen, warum die Wahl des Managers so wichtig ist.

The UK is set to have another new Prime Minister, after the recent incumbent’s short tenure. In this Strategy Blog, we observe the latest developments in the UK.

Global economic growth is faltering markedly and indicators point to an extended period of subdued growth. Although easing bottleneck pressures points to a material drop in inflation during the second half of 2022, will this be enough to calm central banks?

Plain sailing. Batten down the hatches. Strong headwinds. When describing markets, it's common to call upon maritime metaphors to convey uncertainty. In the current economic landscape, we find ourselves reaching for them again.

At different paces, and with varying displays of conviction and credibility, western central banks are continuing to raise interest rates, closing the stable door ever more firmly as the inflation horse canters merrily on the horizon. As we write, the rates priced into the money markets suggest that US, eurozone and UK policy rates will peak at 4.6%, 2.9% and 4.9% respectively, and will do so during 2023. Swiss rates are expected to peak at 2.2%, during 2024.

Sterling has fallen further after the UK's "fiscal event", making higher interest rates even more likely. However, its all-round weakness is being overstated, as is the threat to the UK government's creditworthiness.

Die mittelständischen Unternehmen in den USA sind ein wichtiger Motor der US-Wirtschaft. Diese Unternehmen erwirtschaften einen Gesamtumsatz von 10 Billionen USD und beschäftigen rund 50 Millionen Arbeitnehmer, was sie zu einer attraktiven Investition auf dem Privatmarkt macht.

It is the worst calendar year return (so far) for bonds, some value may finally be re-emerging in the high-quality government bonds that comprise the core of the global market. Is it time to retire the acronym TINA (‘There is No Alternative’)?

In einem volatilen Monat machten die Kapitalmärkte ihre anfänglichen Gewinne im August wieder zunichte: Sowohl die weltweiten Aktien als auch die weltweiten Staatsanleihen gerieten unter Druck, nachdem die US-Notenbank signalisiert hatte, dass die Zinsen in den USA weiter steigen und länger hoch bleiben werden.

UK inflation, already at uncomfortable levels, is set to grind higher, peaking at 13% by year-end – according to the Bank of England – followed by only a gradual descent to perhaps 6% by the end of 2023.

Will another bad UK CPI hit growth? Real pay fell sharply in the last year after rising unexpectedly over the pandemic. Did consumers get used to that higher level of pay? If not, wiggle room now may be higher.

Trotz anhaltender globaler Wachstums- und Inflationssorgen erholten sich die Kapitalmärkte im Juli: Die globalen Aktien legten deutlich zu, nachdem sie im Juni ein Jahrestief erreicht hatten. Auch die weltweiten Staatsanleihen verzeichneten kräftige Gewinne.