Insights

The current challenge for central banks is to restore low and stable inflation, while preserving financial stability and averting a recession. A task that looks less likely now than a few months ago.

Die Stimmung unter den Anlegern hat sich seit der Marktperspektive vom Mai eingetrübt. Objektiv gesehen hat sich jedoch wenig geändert. In dieser Ausgabe erörtern wir die Risiken, die nach wie vor vom Ukraine-Konflikt ausgehen, warum die US-Wirtschaft näher an einer technischen Rezession ist, als wir zunächst dachten, und die Volatilität der Märkte.

While dramatic daily fluctuations in stock market indices are alarming, the current volatility in bond markets is perhaps even more concerning. In this Strategy Blog we examine the relationship between these asset classes amid this challenging investment landscape.

Die Volatilität war bei Aktien und Anleihen weiterhin hoch. Globale Aktien fielen stark und erreichten Mitte des Monats kurzzeitig ein neues Jahrestief, ebenso wie globale Staatsanleihen.

Investors still hope the Goldilocks scenario of moderating inflation and supply-led growth will emerge in H2 2022, although the recent trends in bottlenecks and the labour market call for caution.

Die Kapitalmärkte waren im Mai volatil. Nach der längsten Serie wöchentlicher Verluste bei den wichtigsten Aktienindizes seit 2001 erholten sich die Aktien bis zum Monatsende, während die regionalen Anleiherenditen divergierten.

Property prices have surged to record levels. However, amid rising interest rates, supply-side issues, and ongoing inflationary pressure, investing in real estate looks increasingly risky. In this Strategy blog, we examine the factors underpinning this appetite from investors, and how long we can expect it to last.

When selling a business, entrepreneurs often underestimate this financial shift, particularly the need to replace a regular salary with an ‘income’ post-sale.

Following the biggest one-day fall in US stock markets since mid-2020, Kevin Gardiner examines some of the factors influencing market volatility and considers whether, in an environment of low consumer confidence and inflationary pressures, economic growth can still continue.

The global growth backdrop continues to weaken, yet the mix of elevated inflation and tightening labour market is generating urgency for central banks to normalise stances.

This edition delves into the crisis in Ukraine and how this event is impacting the wider macroeconomy, particularly inflation rates and monetary policy.

In April, investor sentiment deteriorated with the prospect of an even tighter monetary policy. Global equities lost 8.0%, while global investment grade bonds fell 4.2% (in USD).

The global economy is facing three interrelated shocks. New Covid-19 cases are once again gaining momentum in Europe and Asia – especially in China – worsening supply chain disruptions. In addition, the war in Ukraine will hinder global growth through many different channels. Lastly, central banks are under significant pressure to quickly normalise policy stances.

Capital markets fluctuated heavily as investors digested economic and geopolitical risks: Global equities rose 2.1% (in USD terms), while global investment grade bonds fell 2.2% (in USD).

We often speak about our bottom-up investment approach. However, in this Quarterly Letter, we (ironically) take a look at this approach from a top-down perspective, outlining our investment objective, as well as the people and processes that work to achieve this.

Post pandemic-shifts in the real estate market, we look at how different real estate sub-sectors have performed and where investors can look for returns.

Alongside the terrible human cost, the conflict will have an economic impact: more inflation, and less growth.

In reaction to the invasion of Ukraine late last week, instead of military intervention, numerous sanctions were taken in order to isolate Russia from the rest of the world, with the goal of weakening it economically.

Was passiert mit der Anlageklasse Private Debt, wenn die Zinsen steigen? Wir untersuchen das Konzept einer Allwetter-Anlagestrategie.

Hard hit by the Ukraine crisis equities ended the month down -2.6% (in USD terms), alongside global government bonds, -2.1% (in USD, unhedged).

This edition delves into the relationship between interest rates, markets and the global economy, and how this may help control inflationary pressure.

"The global cloud computing market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 16.3% as companies spending on software, infrastructure and platform services strengthen in the wake of the Pandemic".

Despite record level inflation in Western countries, central banks have been reluctant to significantly tighten monetary policy until now.