Chief Economist and Director of Economic Research
Marc-Antoine is Chief Economist and Director of Economic Research at Rothschild & Co Wealth and Asset Management since 2014. Furthermore, he is lecturer in Economics at Sciences Po Paris since 2012.
Previously, he began his career as an economist at the Department of Finance of Canada (2004-05) in Ottawa and was then recruited as strategist-economist for CDPQ Caisse de Dépôt et Placement du Québec (2005-10). Marc-Antoine moved to France as Country risk economist for the Americas and Middle East, and Head of Commodities Research at Société Générale (2011-14).
Market Commentary
Recent data suggest that inflation could prove persistently high for some time and limit the room for central bank easing. Despite this high-for-long path for policy stances, investors remain convinced it will not prove sufficient to derail global growth.
Market Commentary
Global growth resilience expected in 2024 masks the continuation of sharp regional divergences. Although headline inflation in most G20 countries is projected to continue its normalisation, it is unlikely to be back to target before the end of 2025, and upside risks remain elevated. In fact, central banks may be forced to remain prudent to ensure that underlying inflationary pressures are durably contained.
Market Commentary
Regional divergence remained significant at the end of 2023. Although the impacts of high interest rates and the withdrawal of fiscal support are expected to weigh on growth in 2024, investors are keeping their sanguine outlook as they foresee fast interest rate cuts. Yet, resilient labour markets and renewed pressures on supply chains could require a tighter monetary policy stance than expected, upsetting investors’ high hopes.
Market Commentary
Global financial conditions have eased based on confidence that inflation will fall further and central banks will ease their monetary policies without a significant fall in economic activity. This wave of optimism has been boosted by the resilience of the US economy and the surprising shift in the Federal Reserve’s communication. Is the US the canary in the coal mine?
Market Commentary
Economic growth in advanced economies has been very weak in Q3-23, but the US was the notable exception, giving the impression the global economy remained resilient. Are we on a path of ‘immaculate disinflation’, or is the fall in inflation increasingly the reflection of a deteriorating economy?
Market Commentary
The last few months have seen global consumer confidence dip back to still-depressed levels, while business confidence has weakened in most countries. Still, investors remain somewhat optimistic as they foresee the resilience of the global economy amid the end of the monetary tightening.
