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  • Investment backdrop July 2026

    Monthly Market Summary

    Investment backdrop Julio 2026

    Las recientes tensiones geopolíticas han tenido un impacto en los mercados menor de lo que muchos temían.

    Monetary policy - behind the curtain

    Strategy Blog

    Monetary policy - behind the curtain

    Interest rates in 2026 are heading in the opposite direction to what money markets thought. Rates are projected to rise in the US and UK, and have already risen at the ECB. At the start of the year, US and UK rates were seen falling and ECB rates staying put.

    Eyes on the second half

    Perspectives podcast

    Eyes on the second half

    As we reach the halfway point of the year, markets continue to present investors with both opportunities and challenges.

    Five stock market talking points in 2026

    Strategy Blog

    Five stock market talking points in 2026

    It has been another eventful – and at times grim – year, but global equities have continued to climb the ‘wall of worry’, up by more than a tenth in dollar terms. Given we are approaching the 2026 halfway mark, we highlight five interesting stock market observations below.

    Art Basel Special: Art, Wealth & Legacy

    Perspectives podcast

    Art Basel Special: Art, Wealth & Legacy

    Recorded at Art Basel, this special podcast explores the intersection of art,wealth and legacy.

    The next UK Prime Minister

    Strategy Blog

    The next UK Prime Minister

    The UK political landscape appears even more difficult to navigate than at the start of the year: we are on the cusp of welcoming our fifth Prime Minister, in not quite as many years. 

    CIO Lens - Terminator, C3PO and Iron Man

    News Article

    CIO Lens - Terminator, C3PO and Iron Man

    In this edition of our CIO Lens, we explore how this shift is unfolding, where opportunities and risks may emerge, and what it could mean for long-term investors.

    SpaceX: Infinity and beyond?

    Strategy Blog

    SpaceX: Infinity and beyond?

    SpaceX is going public, and the excitement is palpable. If the vertically integrated space company achieves its targeted USD1.75 trillion valuation on Friday it will be the biggest initial public offering (IPO) in history.

    Investment backdrop June 2026

    Monthly Market Summary

    Entorno de inversión Junio 2026

    Sigue sin estar claro cuánto durará el alto el fuego entre Estados Unidos e Irán ni cuándo se reabrirá el estrecho de Ormuz, pero en las últimas semanas ha dado la impresión de que ninguna de las partes tiene demasiado interés en una escalada.

    Macro thoughts on the Swiss referendum

    Strategy Blog

    Macro thoughts on the Swiss referendum

    Switzerland’s emotive “No to 10 million” referendum on June 14 seems to be too close to call. We doubt it will be a game-changer economically.

    Another debt ratio observation

    Strategy Blog

    Another debt ratio observation

    CBO long-term US debt projections have improved since 2021 due to small assumption changes, highlighting forecast sensitivity, while rising bond yields reflect inflation and interest rate dynamics, not fiscal concerns.

    Signals through the noise

    Perspectives podcast

    Signals through the noise

    A resilient economy, a narrow market rally, and an AI spending boom that continues to reshape the investment landscape.

    Inflation, stock valuations, AI FAQs

    Market Perspective

    Inflation, stock valuations, AI FAQs

    Global markets remain resilient despite geopolitical tension and rising energy prices, supported by strong earnings and AI-driven optimism.

    The robots are (almost) here

    Thematic Insights

    Los robots están (casi) aquí

     Los robots humanoides, durante mucho tiempo un elemento central de la ciencia ficción, se están acercando ahora a su despliegue en el mundo real.

    Preparing portfolios for the unexpected

    Business with humanity

    Preparing portfolios for the unexpected

    Financial markets rarely move in isolation. Periods of stress tend to emerge when several pressures unfold simultaneously such as tightening financial conditions, shifting policy expectations, liquidity constraints or sudden repricing of risk.

    Supply chain update

    Strategy Blog

    Supply chain update

    Global supply chains face rising stress but remain resilient. Hormuz disruption halted key energy flows, prompting rerouting. Delivery times have lengthened slightly, shipping rates remain contained, and trade volumes stay healthy.

    April: Buoyant markets, uneasy geopolitics

    Monthly Market Summary

    Abril: Mercados al alza, panorama geopolítico inestable

    En abril, los mercados globales repuntaron con fuerza, impulsados por la tecnología, a pesar de la inestabilidad geopolítica y del repunte de la inflación ligada a la energía.

    Why have stocks gone up?

    Strategy Blog

    Why have stocks gone up?

    The ceasefire has been extended (again), but the situation seems as fluid and potentially volatile as ever. Genuine insight and perspective is elusive. Bizarre statements are made, over-analysed by a hapless media, and then reversed (and re-analysed). 

    Calm in the crosscurrents

    Perspectives podcast

    Calm in the crosscurrents

    Markets have remained strikingly composed in the face of a more uncertain geopolitical backdrop and rising energy costs.

    Stagflation redux?

    Strategy Blog

    Stagflation redux?

    Despite war, blockades and oil near $100, global equities hit highs. Stagflation fears echo 1973 and 2022, but today’s shocks look smaller and shorter-lived. With earnings resilient and rates nearer neutral, markets may keep looking past geopolitical risks for now.

    March: Conflict hits both stocks and bonds

    Monthly Market Summary

    Marzo: El conflicto afecta tanto a las acciones como a los bonos

    Las crecientes tensiones en Oriente Medio impulsaron con fuerza los precios de la energía y presionaron a la baja las acciones, los bonos y el oro, mientras que los bancos centrales mantuvieron los tipos y vigilan los riesgos de inflación.

    Private credit canaries

    Strategy Blog

    Private credit canaries

    Even before war broke out in the Middle East, stress was beginning to show up in the private credit market.

    Markets on edge

    Perspectives podcast

    Markets on edge

    February has been a month of recalibration. Growth remains resilient, central banks remain patient, and equity markets are rotating rather than reversing.

    Oil and rates

    Strategy Blog

    Oil and rates

    Against the backdrop of Middle East conflict, energy disruptions are lifting inflation expectations, pressuring stocks and bonds. Markets now price fewer rate cuts, though growth risks may temper inflation. From here, equities look more vulnerable than bonds overall for now.

    Energy price shock?

    Strategy Blog

    Energy price shock?

    Energy price spikes from Middle East conflict risk pushing US and European inflation above recent 2–4% ranges, with oil and gas disruptions raising headline CPI and broader costs amid uncertainty.

    The ‘K shaped’ stock market

    Strategy Blog

    The ‘K shaped’ stock market

    Before the market mood darkened, an unusual and potentially significant story had been emerging in recent months.

    February: Stocks march higher amid AI fragmentation

    Monthly Market Summary

    Febrero: Las acciones avanzan pese a la fragmentación impulsada por la IA

    En febrero, las acciones y los bonos globales avanzaron en un contexto marcado por mercados al alza pese a las tensiones en torno a la IA, una escalada geopolítica en Oriente Medio y un giro arancelario en Estados Unidos tras la decisión de la Corte Suprema.

    Gold, the dollar and another new world

    Market Perspective

    Gold, the dollar and another new world

    In this issue of Market Perspective we offer our perspective on: the surge in gold; the dollar's weakness, and what it means in a portfolio context; and on the alleged "new world order". 

    The next phase of the AI era: Three possible scenarios for the year ahead

    News Article

    The next phase of the AI era: Three possible scenarios for the year ahead

    In this report we outline three scenarios for the months ahead: our current Mosaique "central" view, as well as a "worse" and "better" case scenario.

    Adjusting the dial

    Perspectives podcast

    Adjusting the dial

    February has been a month of recalibration. Growth remains resilient, central banks remain patient, and equity markets are rotating rather than reversing.

    Demography and debt revisited

    Strategy Blog

    Demography and debt revisited

    Clients worry – understandably – that a greying, indebted world bodes badly for portfolios. The issues may be more nuanced than they seem, however, and other things matter more to living standards and investment returns. Here is a recap of our take.

    Designing better decisions

    Investment Views

    Designing better decisions

    Behind every investment decision lies more than numbers. Habits, emotions and subtle cues shape our choices, often unconsciously.

    Buoyant earnings expectations

    Strategy Blog

    Buoyant earnings expectations

    Equity markets remain resilient despite geopolitical turmoil, supported by robust earnings and high US margins. Growth is broadening across sectors and regions, though sustaining elevated US profitability may prove challenging as conditions evolve further ahead.

    January: Stocks brush aside fraught geopolitics

    Monthly Market Summary

    Enero: Las acciones hacen caso omiso de la tensa situación geopolítica

    Los mercados globales de renta variable subieron en enero a pesar de las crecientes tensiones geopolíticas, impulsados por un crecimiento resiliente y una participación bursátil más amplia, mientras la inflación, la política estadounidense y la evolución de las materias primas marcaron el tono del mes.

    The next Fed Chair

    Strategy Blog

    The next Fed Chair

    Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Markets were steady, reflecting confidence in his credibility, though he may pursue lower rates and a smaller balance sheet despite ongoing political pressure.

    Turning the volume back up

    Perspectives podcast

    Turning the volume back up

    January has turned the volume back up, but markets remain relatively resilient beneath the headlines.

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