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Strategy Blog
Bitcoin dominates crypto’s $3.4tn market but lacks utility, stability, and intrinsic value. Stablecoins may offer a more viable, less volatile path for decentralized digital payments and broader financial inclusion.
Capital markets have outperformed expectations in 2025, despite political and economic turbulence. While risks remain, resilient fundamentals and cautious optimism support current valuations.
Monthly Market Summary
La renta variable global subió un 4,5 % en junio (en USD), y los bonos soberanos globales generaron una rentabilidad del +0,8 % (en USD, con cobertura).
President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” proposes ~$3tn in tax cuts and spending, plausibly one of the single biggest fiscal handouts in US history.
Middle East tensions raise oil price risks, but markets remain calm. History shows geopolitical shocks don’t always trigger financial turmoil.
CIO Lens
Markets have remained relatively calm despite the recent escalation in geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran.
Carlos Mejia
Business with humanity
La renta variable global subió un 5,7 % en mayo (en dólares estadounidenses), mientras que los rendimientos de los bonos gubernamentales mundiales bajaron un 0,5 % (en dólares estadounidenses, con cobertura).
The previous blog shows how market expectations of likely cuts in short-term interest rates have been evolving. Those changes will have had some influence on longer-dated yields too.
In June, major central banks meet: Fed and BoE may pause, while ECB and SNB are expected to cut rates amid diverging policy paths.
Perspectives podcast
We examine the implications of the US budget proposal, renewed tariff tensions, and a cautiously optimistic signal from Germany.
Global supply chains have experienced several shocks in recent years, including a pandemic and war, but have so far proved resilient.
Thematic Insights
Cabe destacar que, como suele ocurrir en el ámbito tecnológico, la nube evoluciona constantemente. Algunas tendencias importantes están redefiniendo la forma en que la utilizamos. En concreto, el avance de la IA generativa está teniendo una incidencia colosal. La adopción de la IA generativa por los centros de datos a gran escala (hyperscalers) cambiará la forma en que se integra y utiliza la nube.
In this edition, Alice Squires discusses the growing impact of geopolitics on business, the rise of shareholder activism, and the strategic decisions boards must take to manage risk and capitalise on opportunities in an increasingly complex landscape.
Market Perspective
In this Market Perspective we offer our answers to some of the investment questions being posed by the idiosyncratic 47th president of the United States.
Talk of recession has moved centre stage following Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2nd.
A pesar de la considerable volatilidad, fue solo un mes positivo para las acciones mundiales en términos de dólares.
On "Liberation Day", 2 April 2025, new US tariffs sparked significant market declines and increased global economic uncertainty.
New US tariffs are starting to weigh on corporate earnings expectations. While markets reacted swiftly, analyst forecasts may take longer to fully adjust.
The US dollar has weakened recently, but its global dominance remains intact.Market fundamentals—not short-term politics—will shape its future path.
On the afternoon of Wednesday, April 9, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for countries not engaging in retaliatory measures, along with the temporary implementation of a 10% “baseline” tariff applied broadly.
In uncertain markets, patience pays off. Staying invested and avoiding impulsive decisions can help protect long-term goals.
Insights
In this edition of Insights, we explore the evolving dynamics of wealth transfer, focusing on how generational changes are reshaping the financial landscape.
Laurent Gagnebin
Another day, another milestone. It feels like we are hurtling towards an all-out trade war.
Global stock markets have responded vigorously to the latest tariff rhetoric from the US administration, and increasingly the response from trade partners.
La renta variable mundial bajó un 4,0% en marzo (en USD), al igual que la deuda pública mundial (0,5% en USD).
Donald Trump: "There'll be a little disturbance, but we're okay with that". Speech to a joint session of congress, 4th March 2025.
Something momentous has just happened in Germany: the sick man of Europe is about to get a fiscal shot to the arm.
Markets have been shifting in the past few weeks, raising key questions for investors.
In the latest edition of Perspectives, we speak with Dean Lush, Executive Vice Chair
La renta variable mundial retrocedió un 0,6% en febrero (en USD), mientras que la deuda pública mundial se revalorizó un 1,0% (en USD, con cobertura).
In this scorecard we attempt to put the big countries’ macroeconomic performance into some sort of objective perspective.
Despite widespread concerns about the European economy, European equities have started the year on a strong note — even outperforming the US market. While investors remain cautious, there are signs of underlying optimism.
With European stocks outperforming US equities so far in 2025, is the tide turning in global markets?
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