Insights

Strategy Blog

Five Macro Myths

Five Macro Myths: AI drives U.S. growth but with limits; layoffs fears overstated; Trump’s influence wanes; UK remains stable, not emerging; and year-end market optimism persists despite uncertainty.

Perspectives podcast

Understanding 2025, Anticipating 2026

Tariffs, elections, AI and a shining moment for gold: 2025 gave us plenty to discuss.

CIO Lens

Bubbles, brooding and balance

AI-driven optimism keeps markets buoyant, but stretched valuations and lingering global uncertainty remind investors to stay vigilant.

Carlos Mejia

Monthly Market Summary

Noviembre: Las acciones paran su rally por las dudas sobre la IA

Las acciones globales se detuvieron en noviembre, con el regreso de la volatilidad y el liderazgo de los segmentos defensivos, mientras la economía mostró resiliencia pese a datos incompletos en EE. UU.

Strategy Blog

Europe’s fiscal impetus

European growth optimism has faded as AI leads globally, yet major fiscal initiatives, Germany’s €500bn plan plus EU defence, green, and Ukraine spending, could boost growth from 2026, despite consensus forecasts remaining muted and likely underestimating potential.

Strategy Blog

UK budget – is that it?

The UK budget offers offsetting tax hikes and spending increases, leaving the economy largely unchanged. Growth forecasts dip, inflation target slips to 2027, and later fiscal tightening remains modest.

Market Perspective

FAQs II: Business cycle, bubbles and budgets

After a turbulent yet resilient year, we focus on inflation, AI-driven valuations and the impact of public debt.

Strategy Blog

What goes up...?

Global equities surged since April, driven by AI stocks, sparking Dotcom-era comparisons. Unlike the 2000 bubble, valuations and leverage are milder. Yet, AI’s payoff may lag, leaving lofty valuations exposed to near-term revenue risks.

Investment Views

From Swiss Peaks to Martian Dreams

How does one go from a small Swiss village to leading NASA’s Mars missions? In our latest Investment Views feature, astrophysicist Professor Dr Thomas Zurbuchen reflects on his remarkable journey and on what Switzerland can teach the world about leadership, innovation and resilience.

Monthly Market Summary

Octubre: las expectativas sobre IA impulsan a la renta variable a nuevos máximos

Las expectativas sobre IA impulsan las acciones globales a nuevos máximos en octubre, mientras la Fed recorta tipos y se suavizan las tensiones entre EE. UU. y China.

Strategy Blog

Products matter

European growth needs more than demand-side fixes, it requires focus on output and products. Innovation, targeted government support, and sustainable production are key to driving inclusive, lasting economic development.

Perspectives podcast

Even gold must cool after a forge

From gold’s pause to echoes of the dot-com boom, our latest podcast explores the forces shaping markets as the year nears its end.

Thematic Insights

Reacción en cadena: el potencial de blockchain

La tecnología blockchain tiene un poder transformador en múltiples industrias y desempeña un papel fundamental en la redefinición de la confianza y la seguridad en la era digital.

Strategy Blog

Japan: change of leadership

Sanae Takaichi, a close ally of the late Shinzo Abe, is looking to become Japan’s first female PM after unexpectedly winning the latest Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership race. 

CIO Lens

The silent allocator

The US dollar may not appear on our asset allocation chart, yet it plays a powerful role in shaping portfolio outcomes.

Carlos Mejia

Monthly Market Summary

Septiembre: la Fed y la IA impulsan las acciones a nuevos máximos

Los mercados alcanzan máximos históricos gracias al impulso de la IA y la flexibilización de la Fed, en un contexto político y geopolítico tenso.

Strategy Blog

US government shutdown

The US government entered a partial shutdown due to healthcare funding disputes. Economic impact depends on duration.

Insights

Insights Issue 16: The Swiss Edge

In this edition of Insights – The Swiss Edge, we explore how Switzerland blends tradition with adaptability to remain a trusted home for wealth.

Perspectives podcast

The Fed, the dollar and the road ahead

Equities higher, bond yields rising, the Fed back in easing mode, and the US dollar under pressure -investors have had plenty to digest in recent weeks. 

Strategy Blog

The Fed resumes easing

The Fed cut rates amid strong demand and inflation, signaling more easing ahead despite resilient growth, market optimism, and rising geopolitical, valuation, and policy risks.

Strategy Blog

Entente Misérable?

Britain and France face political instability, weak economies, and rising populism. Yet, despite fiscal strains and public discontent, markets remain resilient, and long-term debt challenges may still be manageable.

Strategy Blog

France – budgets and bonds

France faces political uncertainty as PM Bayrou’s minority government risks collapse ahead of a 8 September confidence vote.

Monthly Market Summary

Agosto: prevalece la «apetito por el riesgo» a medida que sube la participación en los mercados

Los mercados prolongaron su repunte en agosto, impulsados por sólidos beneficios y un mayor apetito por el riesgo. La inflación y el empleo generan nuevas dudas en un contexto de tensiones políticas y comerciales.

Strategy Blog

China: the long and winding road

China’s stock market is up ~28% in 2025, outperforming globally, but structural issues persist.

Market Perspective

Passionately unconvinced

Despite a turbulent year, markets remain composed, with most indices beating inflation and global equities near break-even.

Perspectives podcast

Summer's end, September's bend?

August defied expectations, with headlines dominated by tariffs, politics, and a 39% US levy on Swiss exports.

News Article

Weekly Market & Strategy (19.08.2025)

Strategy Blog

The return of the gold bugs

Gold is having another bumper year. The shiny metal is up by more than a quarter in 2025, and on track for a third consecutive year of double-digit returns – a winning streak not seen since the mid-noughties.

CIO Lens

7 August: Reciprocal tariff day

The US ends its Liberation Day pause with new import tariffs on trading partners.

Carlos Mejia

Monthly Market Summary

Julio: El regreso de Tariff Man

Las acciones globales subieron un 1,4 % en julio (en términos de USD), mientras que los bonos gubernamentales globales cayeron un 0,2 % (en USD, con cobertura).

Strategy Blog

Global markets navigate US tariff shifts

Market sentiment wavered as new US duties, weak data, and political uncertainty reignited concerns over trade and institutional credibility.

Strategy Blog

(Re)emerging market stocks?

Emerging market stocks are outperforming developed markets in 2025, driven by broad-based earnings growth.

Investment Views

Gold – A timeless asset in a changing world

Gold has long stood as a symbol of stability and enduring value. In today’s uncertain world, its relevance feels stronger than ever.

Strategy Blog

Trump and the US labour market

Trump’s policies tightened immigration, but labour market remains strong with low unemployment and steady job growth.

Strategy Blog

Trump tariffs – latest

Trump threatens new tariffs from August; markets react cautiously. Compromise expected, but trade tensions, volatility, and uncertainty remain elevated globally.

Perspectives podcast

In conversation with Gabriel Gascon, Head of Private Banking Geneva

In the latest edition of Perspectives, we speak with Gabriel Gascon, Head of Private Banking Geneva.