Insights

Populism is reshaping politics across the US and Europe, drawing parties away from the traditional centre. Rather than left versus right, voters increasingly divide along establishment versus anti-establishment lines, creating opportunities for populist movements and challenging conventional political assumptions.

Against a backdrop of resilience of the global economy and the rise of artificial intelligence, Didier Bouvignies reflects on the key drivers behind the first-half market rally and shares his outlook for the second half.

After a strong start to the year for the fixed income markets, the environment has gradually become more complex. Yet the credit market initially benefited from a favorable environment: resilient global growth, gradual disinflation, and central banks perceived as likely to ease monetary policy.

The second quarter of 2026 marked an important turning point for European equities. Following the correction at the end of March, driven by concerns over a prolonged energy shock, markets gradually regained visibility as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased and energy prices declined.

As we head into the summer, the second half of 2026 looks set to be defined less by any single crisis than by continuing geopolitical shifts across multiple arenas. The simmering conflict in the Gulf continues. US politics is entering an important phase as we approach the midterms. Across Europe, populist sentiment is increasingly setting the national agenda, as the EU continues to double down on Made in Europe. Running through all of this is a steady erosion of trust between traditional partners that is pushing countries to hedge, diversify and act in their own self-interest.

While geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation continue to shape the global economic landscape, developments in energy markets have reduced some of the most immediate threats to growth and inflation.

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Following Keir Starmer’s resignation, Andy Burnham has emerged as Labour’s likely successor. Despite political uncertainty, markets remain calm, with economic and geopolitical trends outweighing domestic politics. Significant policy change appears unlikely.

Markets are preparing for a wave of megacap IPOs led by SpaceX, amid strong AI-driven optimism. While liquidity should absorb issuance comfortably, questions remain around valuations, passive investing, concentration risk and index influence.

The latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory.

Switzerland’s upcoming referendum to cap population at 10 million may tighten migration and risk EU ties, but economic impact likely limited, with living standards, markets and growth resilient over time.

A long-term, disciplined approach to investing prioritises quality companies and wealth preservation over short-term trends. Amid significant changes to tax rules—particularly around inheritance and estates—careful planning, regular review, and close collaboration with advisers remain essential to achieving sustainable outcomes.

The latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory.

Global supply chains face rising stress but remain resilient. Hormuz disruption halted key energy flows, prompting rerouting. Delivery times have lengthened slightly, shipping rates remain contained, and trade volumes stay healthy. Overall pressure is rising, though far below pandemic-era supply chain disruption.

The disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has transformed a regional geopolitical event into a global economic shock, driving up energy and transport costs while adding pressure to supply chains worldwide.

Despite unresolved conflict and high human costs, markets rebound as investors look beyond short-term risks. Economic data and earnings remain resilient, oil shocks appear contained, and longer-term outlooks seem largely unchanged—for now, for equities overall.

Despite war, blockades and oil near $100, global equities hit highs. Stagflation fears echo 1973 and 2022, but today’s shocks look smaller and shorter-lived. With earnings resilient and rates nearer neutral, markets may keep looking past geopolitical risks for now.

The latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory reviews an extraordinary February. $181bn raised in US Growth equity was the biggest monthly total ever, a 24-fold yoy increase and means YTD US fundraising of $216bn is just $18bn short of the total for all of 2025. Into March conflict in Iran is leading to volatile public markets.

The military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has crossed a decisive economic threshold. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has transformed a geopolitical risk into a global supply shock affecting energy markets, supply chains, inflation dynamics, and monetary policy worldwide. The resulting environment could evolve into one of elevated inflationary pressure with weakening growth, increasing the likelihood of slowflation and raising the tail risk of stagflation.

Against the backdrop of Middle East conflict, energy disruptions are lifting inflation expectations, pressuring stocks and bonds. Markets now price fewer rate cuts, though growth risks may temper inflation. From here, equities look more vulnerable than bonds overall for now.

Rothschild & Co Redburn analysts unpack all this and more in the twentieth‑anniversary Redburn Review.

The global economy is characterised by a fragile combination of resilience and vulnerability, with the US continuing to act as the main anchor of global growth. Markets are facing an environment in which inflation dynamics remain uneven and geopolitics have re-emerged as a central source of risk, while resilience is increasingly concentrated in a narrow set of drivers – most notably artificial intelligence.

Amid rapid shifts driven by AI, changing market leaders and stretched tech valuations, we break down the forces steering today’s investment landscape. From gold’s standout run to a weakening dollar and renewed geopolitical debate, we show why staying disciplined and anchored in fundamentals is key to navigating 2026.

This is the latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory. The US growth equity market grew 2.1x by value in 2025 to $234bn (2024 $109.7bn). The growth was fuelled by AI raises which grew 3.3x yoy and accounted for 57% of total proceeds. Europe, where the AI effect was less marked and the leading sector was software, saw the value of raises grow by 44% in 2025 to $49.2bn.

Aging and debt fears are overstated. Economies can grow through productivity, sensible policies, and innovation. Debt shifts resources but isn’t catastrophic. Crises stem from liquidity, not insolvency, and gold‑standard nostalgia is misplaced.

The global economy enters 2026 navigating an unusual mix of resilience and structural tension, reflecting the enduring capacity of firms and households to absorb shocks. The key question is how long headwinds from shifting trade policies, geopolitical uncertainty, and weakening labour markets can continue to be offset by tailwinds from surging business investment and ongoing fiscal and monetary support.

This is the latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory. The US growth equity market grew 2.1x by value in 2025 to $234bn (2024 $109.7bn). The growth was fuelled by AI raises which grew 3.3x yoy and accounted for 57% of total proceeds. Europe, where the AI effect was less marked and the leading sector was software, saw the value of raises grow by 44% in 2025 to $49.2bn.

The global economy has maintained dynamic growth since early 2022, despite shocks linked to supply chain disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (2022–2023), the synchronized tightening of global monetary policy (2023–2024), and the sharp increase in U.S. tariffs (2025). Will this impressive trajectory continue in 2026?

Since WWII, geopolitics split into East and West, but that model may fade. U.S. assertiveness contrasts Europe’s passivity, hinting at three major players. Outcomes remain unpredictable, investors should stay patient amid inherent market complexity and uncertainty.

Succession, when planned early and guided by strong values, ensures continuity and growth. At Rothschild & Co, we emphasize stewardship, transparency, and preparation to help families and businesses navigate transitions confidently.

2025 delivered modest growth, easing inflation, and falling rates amid geopolitical tension, fragile ceasefires, and populist pressures. AI hype dominated markets, gold surged, and resilience prevailed despite tariffs, political drama, and valuation risks, setting cautious optimism for 2026.