Insights

2025 finds the Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investment landscape in transition, shaped by shifting policies, mixed fund flows, and continued technological progress.

Fall if you will, but rise you must. James Joyce. This is the latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory. Growth Equity is seeing some signs of valuation picking up while activity levels are strong In the US ytd 178 growth equity raises of $100m+ have garnered $90bn which compares with c80 IPOs raising $11.8bn.

Since the end of World War II, the ties between political decisions, economics and financial markets have become central to the dynamics that shape our societies: this interdependence can clearly be witnessed through the multiple, complex and complementary mechanisms at work.

Long-term interest rates are rising due to inflation expectations, debt concerns, and technical market factors, despite falling short-term rates and easing trade tensions.

In this Market Perspective we discuss the economic impact of Trump's second term, focusing on tariffs, inflation, and market volatility, while highlighting potential geopolitical shifts and the uncertain outlook for global growth and investment strategies.

Economic activity remained relatively resilient in early 2025, although this stability was supported by temporary factors. In fact, global growth projections have been revised markedly down in recent weeks, reflecting tariff rates at levels not seen in a century and a highly unpredictable environment, while inflation risks have increased.

The dollar weakened despite initial strength from Trump’s trade policies. Skepticism about the administration’s credibility and potential shifts in global reserve currency status contributed to its decline. The dollar’s future remains uncertain amid ongoing economic and governance issues in Europe.

We review a strong Q1 for the value of Growth Equity raises on both sides of the Atlantic ( US +48% yoy, Europe +22%) and the potential impact of the ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs on trading conditions for venture backed firms, the flow of funding into the asset class and valuation.

In this edition of Insights, we explore the evolving dynamics of wealth transfer, focusing on how generational changes are reshaping the financial landscape.

President Trump's proposed tariffs could raise US rates from 2-3%, to over 20%, the highest level since the 1930's. The tariffs might raise around 2% of US GDP in revenue, potentially making the difference between growth and recession.

Our view of the long term is indelibly shaped by our 200-year history as a business. In this Quarterly Letter, we re-emphasise what 'long term' means to us, and how it shapes our approach to wealth management and investing.

Redburn Atlantic’s most recent Review explores investment in AI following the conclusion of the hype cycle, the possibility of new trade wars under the second Trump administration, the impact of social media on ecommerce, the rapid rise of Private Markets, ‘Super Tuscan’ Wines, and much more. 

Metals are crucial for daily life and the economy. Our fourth Sustainability Sphere discusses sustainable mining practices. Technology and mining share a symbiotic relationship; and they can drive each other towards a greener, zero-carbon future.

The Mansion House Initiative has ten of the UK’s largest pension providers committing 5% of ‘default’ funds from DC pensions to private assets by 2030, hoping to free up £75bn of growth financing. Ahead of the second anniversary of the Mansion House reforms we take a deep dive into funding conditions for UK private companies.

President Donald Trump’s trade-war salvo, the largest act of American protectionism since the 1930s, combined with his foreign policy’s complete shift, are sending significant shockwaves through the global economy. Although the full impact of phenomenal uncertainty is a key unknown, inflation and growth dynamics might well evolve opposite to investor’s Goldilocks scenario.

Germany faces political uncertainty as coalition negotiations unfold, but its European commitments remain intact. Meanwhile, market impact from President Trump’s Ukraine rhetoric appears limited, with European defence spending set to rise as expected.

In this Market Perspective we examine President Trump’s economic policies, geopolitical risks, and market dynamics. As well as the potential impacts on global markets, trade relationships, and investment strategies.

Optimism around the potential ability of new technologies driven by artificial intelligence to transform industries is driving the venture capital market forward. At the start of 2025 AI continues to dominate VC fundraising and at rapidly growing valuations. The FTSE Venture Capital Index is just 6% off its August 2021 highs and we are seeing a resurgence in interest in sectors like fintech and biotech. As one VC commentator has remarked. ’We are so back baby’.

A trade conflict with the US’s closest economic partners might begin soon, and all indications are that these actions are a start to a widening trade war. The complete ramifications are unknown, yet the cost of uncertainty could be large and increases the risk of stagflation.

Major economies continue to grow, and debt remains manageable. Market fears of a debt spiral appear overstated, with policy flexibility and global demand for government bonds providing long-term financial stability and resilience.

The US has imposed new tariffs on key trade partners, prompting retaliation. While inflationary short-term, their broader economic impact remains uncertain. Policy shifts, negotiations, and consumer responses will shape long-term consequences for global trade and growth.

Trump has wasted little time getting his feet under the desk. His protectionist approach targets the trade deficit but risks inflation and supply chain disruptions. While the US holds negotiating leverage, lasting economic benefits remain uncertain.

Venture Capital activity grew in 2024 for the first time since 2021 with Pitchbook estimating that global funding for VC backed firms increased by 5% yoy, from $349bn in 2023 to $368bn in 2024. In January’s update we make ten predictions for the growth equity market in 2025. Led by AI and associated industries we think the level of VC funding will grow again in 2025- not a bonanza but a year of solid growth.

In 2024, global growth has remained stable and world trade has been recovering, while price pressures continued to ebb. Investors project that this resilience will continue in 2025, with inflation further converging towards central banks’ targets. However, this outlook masks significant differences across sectors and countries, and is surrounded by important uncertainties.

Global equities declined by 2.4% in December (USD terms), while global government bonds fell by 0.7% (USD, hedged terms).

2024 saw friendly economics with falling interest rates. US stocks outperformed the rest of the world. Trump's imminent return influenced market sentiment. Bonds fluctuated amid interest rate changes, and the US dollar strengthened significantly.

In December’s edition we review the biggest deals in growth equity in 2024 on both sides of the Atlantic. A strong end to the year fuelled by AI deals meant our US Deal Monitor recorded 113 raises of $200m+ raising $82bn in 2024, well ahead of 2023’s $44bn. Europe started strongly and then faded. Our Deal Monitor shows a 2024 ytd total of $32.3bn modestly ahead of 2023 with Climate Tech, AI and software leading. Meanwhile Wall Street strategists anticipate a c10% rise in the S&P 500 in 2025.

Redburn Atlantic’s most recent Review explores investment in AI following the conclusion of the hype cycle, the possibility of new trade wars under the second Trump administration, the impact of social media on ecommerce, the rapid rise of Private Markets, ‘Super Tuscan’ Wines, and much more. 

The Macro-Linked Bonds and Governance Linked Bonds introduced in the context of Sri Lanka’s recent debt restructuring include important innovations that significantly enhance the utility of state contingent debt instruments as a means of both accelerating the restructuring process and reducing the risk of future debt distress

While global growth has proved resilient to policy tightening, significant divergences have emerged across countries, and the outcome of the US election has increased the risks for that trend to amplify. Furthermore, by choosing not to act on any assumptions about what the incoming US administration might enact, combined with the long and variable lags of monetary policy, the Fed will struggle to contain the economic consequences of Donald Trump’s priorities.

Global equities rose by 3.7% in November (USD terms), while global government bonds returned 1.1% (USD, hedged terms).