Against a backdrop of resilience of the global economy and the rise of artificial intelligence, Didier Bouvignies, General Partner and CIO at Rothschild & Co Asset Management, reflects on the key drivers behind the first-half market rally and shares his outlook for the second half.
Populism is reshaping politics across the US and Europe, drawing parties away from the traditional centre. Rather than left versus right, voters increasingly divide along establishment versus anti-establishment lines, creating opportunities for populist movements and challenging conventional political assumptions.
After a strong start to the year for the fixed income markets, the environment has gradually become more complex. Yet the credit market initially benefited from a favorable environment: resilient global growth, gradual disinflation, and central banks perceived as likely to ease monetary policy.
The second quarter of 2026 marked an important turning point for European equities. Following the correction at the end of March, driven by concerns over a prolonged energy shock, markets gradually regained visibility as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased and energy prices declined.
Interest rate expectations have shifted markedly in 2026, with markets now anticipating higher rates amid persistent inflation, economic resilience and more hawkish central banks. Despite this, strong AI-driven earnings have supported equities.