Insights

As focus shifts from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last week to the solvency Credit Suisse, central bank interventions have soothed fears of the contagion spreading. In this strategy blog our team analyses why our overall risk appetite remains unchanged.

Idiosyncratic headwinds compounded by losses on its treasury and mortgage-backed security portfolio lead to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Are there signs of contagion? In this Strategy blog, we analyse the situation around the collapse and consider further risks.

Despite cautious central bank communication about the policy outlook, particularly in view of the persistent strength of labour markets, investors were expecting rate cuts in the second half of 2023 amid a fall in global inflation. Yet, recent macroeconomic data has poured cold water on their quick disinflation sanguine view.

This International Women's Day we open the door to the Rothschild Archive. In the latest episode Wealth Management Switzerland's Perspectives podcast, Laura Künlen and Melanie Aspey, Director of the Rothschild Archive, shed light on how the women of the Rothschild family shaped the early days of the business and how their legacy translates till today.

A challenging and unusual cyclical backdrop has impacted the credit cycle. Credit spreads have narrowed and default rates remain low, with relative debt position declining due to faster nominal growth and ongoing deleveraging. As momentum continues, credit spreads may narrow more.

Will there be a recession? Is inflation indeed fading? And is it time for eurozone stocks to outperform? Find out more in the latest instalment of the Perspectives podcast.

As incoming data shows inflation rolling over—despite low unemployment—the good news may not last. But what happens next? In this Strategy Blog, we discuss the state of inflation and why interest rates look more like plateaus than peaks, leaving us at odds with the money markets.

Falling real income, rising inflation, and monetary tightening have led to a sense of economic fatalism. However, throughout Europe, the UK, and the US, signs are suggesting a (hopeful) turn of events, making for a better outlook for the year ahead.

Economists continue to cast a pall of gloom over economic forecasts, questioning future output and growth. In this Strategy Blog, we discuss the supposed gloomy outlook and put into perspective the new opportunities and incentives for useful economic activity.

Capital markets experienced a difficult February, as renewed interest rate risk from further monetary tightening moved into focus. Both global equites and government bonds fell last month.

After recent record low interest rates, variable and fixed mortgage rates are surging to levels not seen since the Global Financial Crisis. In this Strategy Blog, we consider whether fixed or variable is the better option in the ever-evolving economic environment.

2022 was a tumultuous year: war, an energy crisis, and rising interest rates to name just a few main factors leading to a gloomy market sentiment. As a new year begins, Victor Balfour reflects back on the mood of 2022.

December was a challenging month for capital markets as risk appetite abated despite a better-than-expected US inflation print: global equites fell, and global government bonds also declined.

As a family-run business in its seventh generation, our focus is on the long term: to preserve and grow your wealth not only for this generation but for those to come. In this Quarterly Letter, we discuss the important issues surrounding legacies and succession.

This year has come to a close, but the effects of world events on the market persist. Looking to 2023, we pose two main questions to help determine from an investment perspective whether to put liquidity back to work.

With geopolitical risk still present and impossible for markets to ignore (though tensions may not necessarily increase further), we are left facing the cyclical question of whether inflation can subside without an economic slump.

This year, industrial action has been on the rise as demands for higher pay to compensate for real wage growth and inflation levels reaching multi-decade highs, causing some to create parallels to the 1970s. In this Strategy Blog, we discuss why we think these parallels are exaggerated.

In November, risk appetite improved following a weaker-than-anticipated US inflation print, buoying expectations than the US Federal Reserve might slow its tightening cycle: global equities and global government bonds rallied.

The UK Autumn Statement reflected a near-term loosening of fiscal stance, perhaps a surprise given the general talk of 'Austerity II' beforehand. In this Strategy Blog, we share our thoughts on the statement.

The fiscal fiasco of the former PM’s minibudget put the UK economy centre stage – adding to the fiscal, monetary and geopolitical headlines. Looking beyond these issues, this edition of Market Perspective examines threats to growth, inflation and broader systemic risks.

In October, expectations of a slower pace of interest rate hikes and a better-than-expected earnings season boosted sentiment: global equities rose significantly, while global government bonds were unchanged.

While private debt is an attractive investment strategy, we analyse the risks of private debt investments and show why the choice of manager is so important.

The UK is set to have another new Prime Minister, after the recent incumbent’s short tenure. In this Strategy Blog, we observe the latest developments in the UK.

In September, concerns of a global recession and monetary tightening hit capital markets hard: both global equities and global government bonds declined as the Fed and the ECB continued their tightening cycle.

Plain sailing. Batten down the hatches. Strong headwinds. When describing markets, it's common to call upon maritime metaphors to convey uncertainty. In the current economic landscape, we find ourselves reaching for them again.

At different paces, and with varying displays of conviction and credibility, western central banks are continuing to raise interest rates, closing the stable door ever more firmly as the inflation horse canters merrily on the horizon. As we write, the rates priced into the money markets suggest that US, eurozone and UK policy rates will peak at 4.6%, 2.9% and 4.9% respectively, and will do so during 2023. Swiss rates are expected to peak at 2.2%, during 2024.

Sterling has fallen further after the UK's "fiscal event", making higher interest rates even more likely. However, its all-round weakness is being overstated, as is the threat to the UK government's creditworthiness.

It is the worst calendar year return (so far) for bonds, some value may finally be re-emerging in the high-quality government bonds that comprise the core of the global market. Is it time to retire the acronym TINA (‘There is No Alternative’)?

The sticky nature of today’s inflation remains the key risk to the global growth outlook. In this Market Perspective, we explore the macro and market backdrop – including a deep dive into the global inflation trajectory – along with the upcoming political calendar.

A volatile month saw capital markets reverse their initial gains in August: both global equities and global government bonds came under pressure after the Fed signalled that US interest rates will rise further and stay higher for longer.

UK inflation, already at uncomfortable levels, is set to grind higher, peaking at 13% by year-end – according to the Bank of England – followed by only a gradual descent to perhaps 6% by the end of 2023.

World GDP likely shrunk in Q2 2022 – for the first time since the 2020 pandemic related decrease – owing to economic downturns in China, Russia and the US. Is bad news truly good news?