Insights

This is the November 2025 Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory. The market has started to contemplate a potential bubble in AI valuations even as the AI industry continues to drive forward fund raising in US growth equity. In this edition we look at the role of Nvidia, the world’s largest company, in the AI ecosystem and its growth raises, at the accelerating rate of unicorn creation and the improving exit market in 2025.

After years of pandemic-related disruptions, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical instability, the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) as a general-purpose technology is reshaping economic dynamics. While it offers upside potential, AI also evokes memories of the dot-com boom of the late 1990s.

Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK provides globally diversified, preservation-focused wealth management for US clients. Our bottom-up investment approach prioritises prudent growth and long-term security.

This is the latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory. October 12 2025 marked the third anniversary of the start of the current bull market that has seen the S&P500 rise by c90%, NASDAQ by c120% and the FTSE Venture Capital Index by 170%. At $7.1bn September was the biggest value month in European growth equity raises since 2021 while the $34.9bn ytd total already surpasses full year 2024.YTD US raises are $160.8bn, 1.5x 2024. AI and software lead the way on both sides of the Atlantic.

Global economic conditions remain complex as we enter the final quarter of 2025. While growth has shown an unexpected resilience since Liberation Day, the interplay of trade frictions, inflation dynamics, and policy uncertainty continues to shape a challenging environment. Central banks, particularly the Fed, face a delicate balancing act: sustaining economic momentum without reigniting inflationary pressures.

In this edition of Insights – The Swiss Edge, we explore how Switzerland blends tradition with adaptability to remain a trusted home for wealth.

This issue explores how solar is fuelling the prospect of a new era of cheap energy; why beauty M&A is resurging, with indie brands like rhode at the forefront; and a split-screen AI debate: scepticism over productivity gains versus the promise of agentic AI transforming design engineering. Read these and more in September’s edition of the review.

Our wealth framework brings clarity and structure to personal finances by dividing wealth into distinct “pots,”. This approach helps individuals visualise their wealth in a more meaningful way, moving beyond abstract numbers to focus on real-life goals, such as lifestyle needs, long-term security, growth opportunities, and business interests.

The 20th-century distinction between security and economics has dissolved. The investors and businesses who adapt to this new reality - recognising co-dependence, building integration and demanding reform - will be those best placed to navigate volatility and seize opportunity in the contested decade ahead. In our latest geopolitical blog, Mark Sedwill, Chair of Geopolitical Advisory at Rothschild & Co, reflects on the context and opportunities for investment in the defence sector.

This is the latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory. In September’s update we dive into the world of venture capital investment in emerging sports leagues; look at how the German government is supporting VC investment in the Federal Republic; and review the big investors who have supercharged the $131bn invested in US and European AI LLM and foundation models since the start of 2023.

Investors are hoping for accommodative monetary policy in a stable economic environment, with “insurance” or “normalization” rate cuts. However, the Goldilocks scenario is increasingly being tested as adverse inflation dynamics clash with a weakening labour market.

In the July edition we review Growth Equity activity in H1 2025. Led by AI, the value of US VC company fundraises rose 2.6x yoy to $121bn in H1 2025. European VC raises of $20m+ saw a 23% yoy advance in value. Exit value is picking up but new fundraising by VC firms remains subdued.

Rothschild & Co Wealth Management hosted Ed Conway and Fiona Howarth to explore how six key materials - sand, salt, iron, copper, oil, and lithium - underpin sustainability, and the global transition to cleaner energy.

No parent wants to pass on wealth to their children and watch them fritter it away. Here’s how to give your family the best chance in life while ensuring your wealth is protected for generations to come.

The latest Redburn Review examines the future of Medicaid, the current momentum in financial markets and the creative disruption caused by GenAI. It also covers the renewable energy storage, the atoms of analytics and many more.

Since the end of World War II, the ties between political decisions, economics and financial markets have become central to the dynamics that shape our societies: this interdependence can clearly be witnessed through the multiple, complex and complementary mechanisms at work.

Not all AI. The strength of VC funding growth (up 3x ytd in the US, up 20% In Europe) is led by AI but it’s not the whole story. To the end of April funding for ‘non-AI’ companies is up 67% yoy in the US and 14% in Europe. Software, biotech and fintech are all prominent – we look at what’s driving this.

Economic activity remained relatively resilient in early 2025, although this stability was supported by temporary factors. In fact, global growth projections have been revised markedly down in recent weeks, reflecting tariff rates at levels not seen in a century and a highly unpredictable environment, while inflation risks have increased.

We review a strong Q1 for the value of Growth Equity raises on both sides of the Atlantic ( US +48% yoy, Europe +22%) and the potential impact of the ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs on trading conditions for venture backed firms, the flow of funding into the asset class and valuation.

Our view of the long term is indelibly shaped by our 200-year history as a business. In this Quarterly Letter, we re-emphasise what 'long term' means to us, and how it shapes our approach to wealth management and investing.

Redburn Atlantic’s most recent Review explores investment in AI following the conclusion of the hype cycle, the possibility of new trade wars under the second Trump administration, the impact of social media on ecommerce, the rapid rise of Private Markets, ‘Super Tuscan’ Wines, and much more. 

Metals are crucial for daily life and the economy. Our fourth Sustainability Sphere discusses sustainable mining practices. Technology and mining share a symbiotic relationship; and they can drive each other towards a greener, zero-carbon future.

In this Market Perspective we examine President Trump’s economic policies, geopolitical risks, and market dynamics. As well as the potential impacts on global markets, trade relationships, and investment strategies.

Optimism around the potential ability of new technologies driven by artificial intelligence to transform industries is driving the venture capital market forward. At the start of 2025 AI continues to dominate VC fundraising and at rapidly growing valuations. The FTSE Venture Capital Index is just 6% off its August 2021 highs and we are seeing a resurgence in interest in sectors like fintech and biotech. As one VC commentator has remarked. ’We are so back baby’.

Venture Capital activity grew in 2024 for the first time since 2021 with Pitchbook estimating that global funding for VC backed firms increased by 5% yoy, from $349bn in 2023 to $368bn in 2024. In January’s update we make ten predictions for the growth equity market in 2025. Led by AI and associated industries we think the level of VC funding will grow again in 2025- not a bonanza but a year of solid growth.

In 2024, global growth has remained stable and world trade has been recovering, while price pressures continued to ebb. Investors project that this resilience will continue in 2025, with inflation further converging towards central banks’ targets. However, this outlook masks significant differences across sectors and countries, and is surrounded by important uncertainties.

Global equities declined by 2.4% in December (USD terms), while global government bonds fell by 0.7% (USD, hedged terms).

We are often asked why we focus on wealth preservation. We know growth is important, but we also want to achieve this in a prudent way and avoid any irrecoverable losses on the way. In this Quarterly Letter, we discuss some of the ways we try to do that.

The Macro-Linked Bonds and Governance Linked Bonds introduced in the context of Sri Lanka’s recent debt restructuring include important innovations that significantly enhance the utility of state contingent debt instruments as a means of both accelerating the restructuring process and reducing the risk of future debt distress