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Despite recent resilience, UK consumers face mounting pressure from higher energy and food prices, potential tax rises and higher interest rates, all of which could weaken discretionary spending and economic activity this winter.

In the September 2026 Redburn Review, Rothschild & Co Redburn analysts take a closer look at some of the assumptions shaping today's markets.

The geostrategic context will continue to reshape the business environment, and the pace and complexity of events will only accelerate; for business leaders, that is now the norm.

Markets are navigating geopolitical uncertainty, shifting interest-rate expectations and the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence. Resilient economic activity, healthy corporate profitability and continued technology investment remain supportive, although higher oil prices, rising bond yields and political risks highlight the value of a measured, long-term investment approach.

Rothschild & Co has been recognised across five categories at the Global Banking & Markets Awards in the Middle East

The latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory.

Investments linked to artificial intelligence continue to support global growth, but they are also contributing to a sustained rise in long-term interest rates. At the same time, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s communication are maintaining a more fragile economic environment.

In recent years, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has taken centre stage, fuelled by spectacular promises and applications that are now very much a reality. We have already noted on several occasions that this revolution is underpinned by less visible building blocks, such as strategic metals, data centres and electricity grids. Recent developments invite us to broaden that perspective even further.

Die Spannungen im Nahen Osten bleiben hoch. Nachdem eine Waffenruhe zwischen den USA und dem Iran Anfang Juli zusammengebrochen war, wurden die Angriffe zunächst wieder aufgenommen.

Many business owners accumulate cash without a clear strategy. By separating operational, reserve and surplus capital, businesses can improve resilience, reduce concentration risk, manage tax considerations more effectively, and ensure excess cash supports longer-term business and personal objectives.

Rothschild & Co appoints Brent Surber to lead its Private Capital Markets capabilities in North America

Japan’s yen has weakened sharply, reviving concerns over carry-trade unwinding and global market volatility. Yet Japan’s stronger growth, rising wages, higher inflation, corporate reforms, and improving shareholder focus suggest a structural economic revival, though sustained profitability remains the key test.