Asset Management: Monthly Macro Insights - November 2026

Resilient global growth masks an increasingly challenging environment shaped by persistent inflation, high interest rates, geopolitical tensions, fiscal pressures and strong AI investment.

A resilient, but divided global economy endogenous shock...

Global growth remains resilient despite recent shocks, but significant disparities are emerging between economies benefiting from the technology and investment cycle and those more exposed to higher energy and financing costs. In the US, consumption and AI-related investment continue to support activity, although growth has become increasingly dependent on strong financial markets.

Central banks walking a tightrope

Structurally higher interest rates are also reducing governments’ room for manoeuvre at a time when borrowing needs remain elevated. Governments must therefore increasingly balance support for growth with fiscal credibility, particularly in highly indebted economies where rising debt-servicing costs are adding further pressure.

The return of the fiscal constraint

Global growth remains resilient despite recent shocks, but significant disparities are emerging between economies benefiting from the technology and investment cycle and those more exposed to higher energy and financing costs. In the US, consumption and AI-related investment continue to support activity, although growth has become increasingly dependent on strong financial markets.

Resilience has a price

Ultimately, the forces supporting global resilience, including AI investment, fiscal spending, elevated asset prices and geopolitical-related investment, all require substantial financing at a time when the cost of capital has risen. The key question for 2027 is whether productivity gains can materialise quickly enough to offset this structurally higher cost of capital.