News & Insights

Weakening business confidence indices continue to cast doubts on the global economy’s resilience. Although core inflation remains above central banks’ targets, the cooling of labour markets has not gone unnoticed, prompting a major shift in policy rates projections.

Business confidence fell at the end of Q2-24, casting doubts on the positive momentum going into the second half of the year, while rising political uncertainty add to an already complicated conduct of monetary policy.

Although the global economy is still experiencing the lagged effects of tighter monetary policy, business confidence has been improving over the past few months, suggesting positive momentum going into the second half of the year. Will central banks be a tailwind or a headwind?

Recent monthly indicators suggest that the slowdown in global growth around the turn of the year has bottomed out. However, inflation outlook remains murky and the latest data have shaken investors’ confidence that significant monetary policy easing is in the offing.

Recent data suggest that inflation could prove persistently high for some time and limit the room for central bank easing. Despite this high-for-long path for policy stances, investors remain convinced it will not prove sufficient to derail global growth.

Global growth resilience expected in 2024 masks the continuation of sharp regional divergences. Although headline inflation in most G20 countries is projected to continue its normalisation, it is unlikely to be back to target before the end of 2025, and upside risks remain elevated. In fact, central banks may be forced to remain prudent to ensure that underlying inflationary pressures are durably contained.

Regional divergence remained significant at the end of 2023. Although the impacts of high interest rates and the withdrawal of fiscal support are expected to weigh on growth in 2024, investors are keeping their sanguine outlook as they foresee fast interest rate cuts. Yet, resilient labour markets and renewed pressures on supply chains could require a tighter monetary policy stance than expected, upsetting investors’ high hopes.

Economic growth in advanced economies has been very weak in Q3-23, but the US was the notable exception, giving the impression the global economy remained resilient. Are we on a path of ‘immaculate disinflation’, or is the fall in inflation increasingly the reflection of a deteriorating economy?

The last few months have seen global consumer confidence dip back to still-depressed levels, while business confidence has weakened in most countries. Still, investors remain somewhat optimistic as they foresee the resilience of the global economy amid the end of the monetary tightening.

Most investors continue to foresee the resilience of the global economy despite the fastest global monetary policy tightening in four decades. However, not only the impacts of the latter are increasingly visible on economic activity, but the rise in crude oil prices and higher bond yields since midyear have raised new concerns regarding the goldilocks scenario.

Over the past months, narratives dominated by central bank tightening producing an inevitable recession have faded from the scene. However, the economic outlook remains particularly uncertain amid further deterioration in business confidence.

After some resilience in early 2023, the economic outlook remains particularly uncertain amid further deterioration in business confidence. Yet, investors continue to foresee a soft landing.