News & Insights

Against a backdrop of resilience of the global economy and the rise of artificial intelligence, Didier Bouvignies reflects on the key drivers behind the first-half market rally and shares his outlook for the second half.

After a strong start to the year for the fixed income markets, the environment has gradually become more complex. Yet the credit market initially benefited from a favorable environment: resilient global growth, gradual disinflation, and central banks perceived as likely to ease monetary policy.

The second quarter of 2026 marked an important turning point for European equities. Following the correction at the end of March, driven by concerns over a prolonged energy shock, markets gradually regained visibility as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased and energy prices declined.

The military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has crossed a decisive economic threshold. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has transformed a geopolitical risk into a global supply shock affecting energy markets, supply chains, inflation dynamics, and monetary policy worldwide. The resulting environment could evolve into one of elevated inflationary pressure with weakening growth, increasing the likelihood of slowflation and raising the tail risk of stagflation.

The military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has crossed a decisive economic threshold. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has transformed a geopolitical risk into a global supply shock affecting energy markets, supply chains, inflation dynamics, and monetary policy worldwide. The resulting environment could evolve into one of elevated inflationary pressure with weakening growth, increasing the likelihood of slowflation and raising the tail risk of stagflation.

The military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has crossed a decisive economic threshold. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has transformed a geopolitical risk into a global supply shock affecting energy markets, supply chains, inflation dynamics, and monetary policy worldwide. The resulting environment could evolve into one of elevated inflationary pressure with weakening growth, increasing the likelihood of slowflation and raising the tail risk of stagflation.

The military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has crossed a decisive economic threshold. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has transformed a geopolitical risk into a global supply shock affecting energy markets, supply chains, inflation dynamics, and monetary policy worldwide. The resulting environment could evolve into one of elevated inflationary pressure with weakening growth, increasing the likelihood of slowflation and raising the tail risk of stagflation.

The global economy is characterised by a fragile combination of resilience and vulnerability, with the US continuing to act as the main anchor of global growth. Markets are facing an environment in which inflation dynamics remain uneven and geopolitics have re-emerged as a central source of risk, while resilience is increasingly concentrated in a narrow set of drivers – most notably artificial intelligence.

The global economy enters 2026 navigating an unusual mix of resilience and structural tension, reflecting the enduring capacity of firms and households to absorb shocks. The key question is how long headwinds from shifting trade policies, geopolitical uncertainty, and weakening labour markets can continue to be offset by tailwinds from surging business investment and ongoing fiscal and monetary support.

The global economy has maintained dynamic growth since early 2022, despite shocks linked to supply chain disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (2022–2023), the synchronized tightening of global monetary policy (2023–2024), and the sharp increase in U.S. tariffs (2025). Will this impressive trajectory continue in 2026?

Despite geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, GDP growth in 2025 proved surprisingly resilient, slowing only slightly compared to 2024. However, vulnerabilities remain, as several factors that have supported the global economy thus far may prove to be temporary.

After years of pandemic-related disruptions, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical instability, the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) as a general-purpose technology is reshaping economic dynamics. While it offers upside potential, AI also evokes memories of the dot-com boom of the late 1990s.