Marc-Antoine Collard

After years of pandemic-related disruptions, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical instability, the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) as a general-purpose technology is reshaping economic dynamics. While it offers upside potential, AI also evokes memories of the dot-com boom of the late 1990s.

Investors are hoping for accommodative monetary policy in a stable economic environment, with “insurance” or “normalization” rate cuts. However, the Goldilocks scenario is increasingly being tested as adverse inflation dynamics clash with a weakening labour market.

The global economy started 2025 on a solid footing as businesses and consumers rushed to front-run US tariffs by producing and buying more goods. Although several factors have unfolded more constructively than feared, was the drop in economic activity averted, or only delayed?

Economic activity remained relatively resilient in early 2025, although this stability was supported by temporary factors. In fact, global growth projections have been revised markedly down in recent weeks, reflecting tariff rates at levels not seen in a century and a highly unpredictable environment, while inflation risks have increased.

Global growth remained relatively resilient in early 2025. However, front-loading of global trade flows, particularly between Asia and North America, greatly distorted the reality. In fact, stagflation and recession risks have both increased significantly.

President Donald Trump’s trade-war salvo, the largest act of American protectionism since the 1930s, combined with his foreign policy’s complete shift, are sending significant shockwaves through the global economy. Although the full impact of phenomenal uncertainty is a key unknown, inflation and growth dynamics might well evolve opposite to investor’s Goldilocks scenario.