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  • Pork-barrel politics
    Strategy Blog

    Pork-barrel politics

    President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” proposes ~$3tn in tax cuts and spending, plausibly one of the single biggest fiscal handouts in US history.
  • Middle East conflict
    Strategy Blog

    Middle East conflict

    Middle East tensions raise oil price risks, but markets remain calm. History shows geopolitical shocks don’t always trigger financial turmoil.
  • Mai: Die Vereinigten Staaten lockern ihre Zollpolitik
    Monthly Market Summary

    May: US tariff policy moderates

    Global equities rose by 5.7% in May (USD terms), while global government bond returns were down by 0.5% (USD, hedged terms).
  • Why have long-term interest rates risen?
    Strategy Blog

    Why have long-term interest rates risen?

    The previous blog shows how market expectations of likely cuts in short-term interest rates have been evolving. Those changes will have had some influence on longer-dated yields too.
  • Interest rates: further room to fall?
    Strategy Blog

    Interest rates: further room to fall?

    In June, major central banks meet: Fed and BoE may pause, while ECB and SNB are expected to cut rates amid diverging policy paths.
  • Fresh news or fresh noise?
    Perspectives podcast

    Fresh news or fresh noise?

    We examine the implications of the US budget proposal, renewed tariff tensions, and a cautiously optimistic signal from Germany.
  • Supply chains: state of play
    Strategy Blog

    Supply chains: state of play

    Global supply chains have experienced several shocks in recent years, including a pandemic and war, but have so far proved resilient.
  • Weather forecast: Consistent clouds in our sky
    Thematic Insights

    Weather forecast: Consistent clouds in our sky

    As is typical in the tech space, the Cloud is continually evolving. Some major trends are reshaping the ways we use the Cloud, and in particular the development of Generative AI is playing a significant role. In particular, the adoption of generative AI by hyperscalers will create shifts in the ways the Cloud is adopted and utilized.   
  • Trump II: FAQs
    Market Perspective

    Trump II: FAQs

    In this Market Perspective we offer our answers to some of the investment questions being posed by the idiosyncratic 47th president of the United States.
  • April: Zollturbulenzen
    Monthly Market Summary

    April: Tariff turbulence

    Despite considerable volatility, it was (just) a positive month for global stocks in dollar terms.
  • Beyond liberation day
    Perspectives podcast

    Beyond liberation day

    On "Liberation Day", 2 April 2025, new US tariffs sparked significant market declines and increased global economic uncertainty.
  • Trump Tariffs = Earnings Downgrades
    Strategy Blog

    Trump Tariffs = Earnings Downgrades

    New US tariffs are starting to weigh on corporate earnings expectations. While markets reacted swiftly, analyst forecasts may take longer to fully adjust.
  • The dollar - down but not out
    Strategy Blog

    The dollar - down but not out

    The US dollar has weakened recently, but its global dominance remains intact.Market fundamentals—not short-term politics—will shape its future path.
  • CIO_lens_header_400x200.jpg
    CIO Lens

    Pause for breath

    On the afternoon of Wednesday, April 9, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for countries not engaging in retaliatory measures, along with the temporary implementation of a 10% “baseline” tariff applied broadly.
  • Statue of liberty.jpg
    CIO Lens

    Staying the course

    Global stock markets have responded vigorously to the latest tariff rhetoric from the US administration, and increasingly the response from trade partners.
  • März: Deutschland macht ernst
    Monthly Market Summary

    March: Germany gets serious

    Global equities declined by 0.6% in February (USD terms), though global government bonds returned 1.0% (USD, hedged terms).
  • The US consumer: living with Trump
    Strategy Blog

    The US consumer: living with Trump

    Donald Trump: "There'll be a little disturbance, but we're okay with that". Speech to a joint session of congress, 4th March 2025.
  • Deutschland stimmt für Wachstum
    Strategy Blog

    Germany votes for growth

    Something momentous has just happened in Germany: the sick man of Europe is about to get a fiscal shot to the arm.
  • Keeping a steady hand
    Perspectives podcast

    Keeping a steady hand

    Markets have been shifting in the past few weeks, raising key questions for investors.
  • Februar: Aktienrotation verlängert sich
    Monthly Market Summary

    February: stock rotation extends

    Global equities declined by 0.6% in February (USD terms), though global government bonds returned 1.0% (USD, hedged terms).
  • German election / Ukraine
    Strategy Blog

    German election / Ukraine

    Quick thoughts on two pressing political issues: yesterday’s federal election in Germany, and the Trump/Ukraine situation.
  • Gut Ding will Weile haben
    Market Perspective

    Wait and see

    Donald Trump is playing the media like fish on a line. Hopelessly hooked on easy copy, they have to follow his every twist and turn, flip-flopping this way and that, not seeing where they have been or where they are going.
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