Strategy Blog Pork-barrel politics President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” proposes ~$3tn in tax cuts and spending, plausibly one of the single biggest fiscal handouts in US history. 30/06/2025
Strategy Blog Five observations from stock markets in 2025 Middle East tensions raise oil price risks, but markets remain calm. History shows geopolitical shocks don’t always trigger financial turmoil. 20/06/2025
CIO Lens CIO Lens: When the world moves fast, stay grounded Markets have remained relatively calm despite the recent escalation in geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. Carlos Mejia 19/06/2025
Strategy Blog Middle East conflict Middle East tensions raise oil price risks, but markets remain calm. History shows geopolitical shocks don’t always trigger financial turmoil. 18/06/2025
Monthly Market Summary May: US tariff policy moderates Global equities rose by 5.7% in May (USD terms), while global government bond returns were down by 0.5% (USD, hedged terms). 03/06/2025
Strategy Blog Why have long-term interest rates risen? The previous blog shows how market expectations of likely cuts in short-term interest rates have been evolving. Those changes will have had some influence on longer-dated yields too. 03/06/2025
Strategy Blog Interest rates: further room to fall? In June, major central banks meet: Fed and BoE may pause, while ECB and SNB are expected to cut rates amid diverging policy paths. 30/05/2025
Perspectives podcast Fresh news or fresh noise? We examine the implications of the US budget proposal, renewed tariff tensions, and a cautiously optimistic signal from Germany. 30/05/2025
Strategy Blog Supply chains: state of play Global supply chains have experienced several shocks in recent years, including a pandemic and war, but have so far proved resilient. 22/05/2025
Thematic Insights Weather forecast: Consistent clouds in our sky As is typical in the tech space, the Cloud is continually evolving. Some major trends are reshaping the ways we use the Cloud, and in particular the development of Generative AI is playing a significant role. In particular, the adoption of generative AI by hyperscalers will create shifts in the ways the Cloud is adopted and utilized. 20/05/2025
Perspectives podcast In conversation with Alice Squires, Co-Head of Investor Advisory and Geopolitical Advisory In this edition, Alice Squires discusses the growing impact of geopolitics on business, the rise of shareholder activism, and the strategic decisions boards must take to manage risk and capitalise on opportunities in an increasingly complex landscape. 16/05/2025
Market Perspective Trump II: FAQs In this Market Perspective we offer our answers to some of the investment questions being posed by the idiosyncratic 47th president of the United States. 14/05/2025
Strategy Blog Tariffs: Assessing initial manufacturing damage Talk of recession has moved centre stage following Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2nd. 08/05/2025
Monthly Market Summary April: Tariff turbulence Despite considerable volatility, it was (just) a positive month for global stocks in dollar terms. 02/05/2025
Perspectives podcast Beyond liberation day On "Liberation Day", 2 April 2025, new US tariffs sparked significant market declines and increased global economic uncertainty. 29/04/2025
Strategy Blog Trump Tariffs = Earnings Downgrades New US tariffs are starting to weigh on corporate earnings expectations. While markets reacted swiftly, analyst forecasts may take longer to fully adjust. 23/04/2025
Strategy Blog The dollar - down but not out The US dollar has weakened recently, but its global dominance remains intact.Market fundamentals—not short-term politics—will shape its future path. 17/04/2025
CIO Lens Pause for breath On the afternoon of Wednesday, April 9, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for countries not engaging in retaliatory measures, along with the temporary implementation of a 10% “baseline” tariff applied broadly. Carlos Mejia 10/04/2025
Strategy Blog Don’t just do something, stand there In uncertain markets, patience pays off. Staying invested and avoiding impulsive decisions can help protect long-term goals. 10/04/2025
Insights Insights Issue 15: Shaping tomorrow's great wealth transfer In this edition of Insights, we explore the evolving dynamics of wealth transfer, focusing on how generational changes are reshaping the financial landscape. Laurent Gagnebin 09/04/2025
Strategy Blog Another milestone – and a bond puzzle Another day, another milestone. It feels like we are hurtling towards an all-out trade war. 09/04/2025
CIO Lens Staying the course Global stock markets have responded vigorously to the latest tariff rhetoric from the US administration, and increasingly the response from trade partners. Carlos Mejia 07/04/2025
Monthly Market Summary March: Germany gets serious Global equities declined by 0.6% in February (USD terms), though global government bonds returned 1.0% (USD, hedged terms). 02/04/2025
Strategy Blog The US consumer: living with Trump Donald Trump: "There'll be a little disturbance, but we're okay with that". Speech to a joint session of congress, 4th March 2025. 25/03/2025
Strategy Blog Germany votes for growth Something momentous has just happened in Germany: the sick man of Europe is about to get a fiscal shot to the arm. 24/03/2025
Perspectives podcast Keeping a steady hand Markets have been shifting in the past few weeks, raising key questions for investors. 21/03/2025
Perspectives podcast In conversation with Dean Lush, Executive Vice Chair In the latest edition of Perspectives, we speak with Dean Lush, Executive Vice Chair 14/03/2025
Monthly Market Summary February: stock rotation extends Global equities declined by 0.6% in February (USD terms), though global government bonds returned 1.0% (USD, hedged terms). 04/03/2025
Market Perspective National economic performance ranked: a macro scorecard In this scorecard we attempt to put the big countries’ macroeconomic performance into some sort of objective perspective. 03/03/2025
CIO Lens Amidst concerns surrounding Europe, some signs of optimism Despite widespread concerns about the European economy, European equities have started the year on a strong note — even outperforming the US market. While investors remain cautious, there are signs of underlying optimism. Carlos Mejia 28/02/2025
Perspectives podcast The US vs Europe: where should investors focus their attention? With European stocks outperforming US equities so far in 2025, is the tide turning in global markets? 28/02/2025
Strategy Blog German election / Ukraine Quick thoughts on two pressing political issues: yesterday’s federal election in Germany, and the Trump/Ukraine situation. 24/02/2025
Market Perspective Wait and see Donald Trump is playing the media like fish on a line. Hopelessly hooked on easy copy, they have to follow his every twist and turn, flip-flopping this way and that, not seeing where they have been or where they are going. 24/02/2025