Insights

Energy price spikes from Middle East conflict risk pushing US and European inflation above recent 2–4% ranges, with oil and gas disruptions raising headline CPI and broader costs amid uncertainty.

Before the market mood darkened, an unusual and potentially significant story had been emerging in recent months.

In February, global equities and bonds advanced amid rising markets despite AI‑related tensions, a geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and a US tariff reversal following the Supreme Court’s decision.

In this issue of Market Perspective we offer our perspective on: the surge in gold; the dollar's weakness, and what it means in a portfolio context; and on the alleged "new world order". 

Clients worry – understandably – that a greying, indebted world bodes badly for portfolios. The issues may be more nuanced than they seem, however, and other things matter more to living standards and investment returns. Here is a recap of our take.

Behind every investment decision lies more than numbers. Habits, emotions and subtle cues shape our choices, often unconsciously.

Equity markets remain resilient despite geopolitical turmoil, supported by robust earnings and high US margins. Growth is broadening across sectors and regions, though sustaining elevated US profitability may prove challenging as conditions evolve further ahead.

Global equities rose in January despite heightened geopolitical tensions, supported by resilient growth and broader market participation, while inflation trends, US policy and commodity moves shaped the month’s narrative.

January has turned the volume back up, but markets remain relatively resilient beneath the headlines.

Despite President Trump’s pressure and a criminal probe into Jerome Powell, the Fed’s independence largely held. Market reaction stayed muted, legal limits constrain Trump’s influence, and any politicised rate cuts risk credibility, inflation, and broader financial instability for global markets ahead. 

Clarity can feel scarce in uncertain times. Mark Sedwill offers a measured view on global dynamics and the value of long-term thinking.

Since WWII, geopolitics split into East and West, but that model may fade. U.S. assertiveness contrasts Europe’s passivity, hinting at three major players.

Planning for retirement early helps secure your finances and gives you the freedom to enjoy travel, hobbies or family time. These key questions can guide you

US tariffs hit post-war highs but haven’t derailed growth. Global trade rose 4%, supply chains rerouted, and US demand stayed resilient. Inflation impact muted as tariff revenues recycle into tax cuts, softening consumer costs.

Five Macro Myths: AI drives U.S. growth but with limits; layoffs fears overstated; Trump’s influence wanes; UK remains stable, not emerging; and year-end market optimism persists despite uncertainty.

Tariffs, elections, AI and a shining moment for gold: 2025 gave us plenty to discuss.

European growth optimism has faded as AI leads globally, yet major fiscal initiatives, Germany’s €500bn plan plus EU defence, green, and Ukraine spending, could boost growth from 2026, despite consensus forecasts remaining muted and likely underestimating potential.

The UK budget offers offsetting tax hikes and spending increases, leaving the economy largely unchanged. Growth forecasts dip, inflation target slips to 2027, and later fiscal tightening remains modest.

After a turbulent yet resilient year, we focus on inflation, AI-driven valuations and the impact of public debt.

Global equities surged since April, driven by AI stocks, sparking Dotcom-era comparisons. Unlike the 2000 bubble, valuations and leverage are milder. Yet, AI’s payoff may lag, leaving lofty valuations exposed to near-term revenue risks.

European growth needs more than demand-side fixes, it requires focus on output and products. Innovation, targeted government support, and sustainable production are key to driving inclusive, lasting economic development.

From gold’s pause to echoes of the dot-com boom, our latest podcast explores the forces shaping markets as the year nears its end.

Blockchain has a transformative power across industries and plays a role in reshaping trust and security in the digital age. Conditions are increasingly favorable for investing in Blockchain. 

Sanae Takaichi, a close ally of the late Shinzo Abe, is looking to become Japan’s first female PM after unexpectedly winning the latest Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership race.