Insights

Global supply chains face rising stress but remain resilient. Hormuz disruption halted key energy flows, prompting rerouting. Delivery times have lengthened slightly, shipping rates remain contained, and trade volumes stay healthy.

Oil prices have nearly doubled since the start of the coordinated attacks on Iran in February. Brent crude has risen sharply, climbing from around 60 dollars per barrel at the start of the year to around 110 dollars.

Uncertainty is a constant in markets, not an exception. What matters is how it is approached. In this edition of Insights, we consider how structure, preparation and a long-term perspective can help anchor decision-making when conditions are less predictable

In April, global markets rebounded strongly, led by technology stocks, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and renewed energy-driven inflation pressures.

Despite war, blockades and oil near $100, global equities hit highs. Stagflation fears echo 1973 and 2022, but today’s shocks look smaller and shorter-lived. With earnings resilient and rates nearer neutral, markets may keep looking past geopolitical risks for now.

Women face wider pension gaps due to part‑time work, lower pay and longer lives. Early planning, active financial management and risk awareness can improve long‑term security and independence.

Escalating Middle East tensions pushed energy prices sharply higher and dragged down equities, bonds and gold, while central banks held rates steady and monitored rising inflation risks.

Even before war broke out in the Middle East, stress was beginning to show up in the private credit market.

Energy price spikes from Middle East conflict risk pushing US and European inflation above recent 2–4% ranges, with oil and gas disruptions raising headline CPI and broader costs amid uncertainty.

Before the market mood darkened, an unusual and potentially significant story had been emerging in recent months.

In February, global equities and bonds advanced amid rising markets despite AI‑related tensions, a geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and a US tariff reversal following the Supreme Court’s decision.

In this issue of Market Perspective we offer our perspective on: the surge in gold; the dollar's weakness, and what it means in a portfolio context; and on the alleged "new world order". 

Clients worry – understandably – that a greying, indebted world bodes badly for portfolios. The issues may be more nuanced than they seem, however, and other things matter more to living standards and investment returns. Here is a recap of our take.

Behind every investment decision lies more than numbers. Habits, emotions and subtle cues shape our choices, often unconsciously.

Equity markets remain resilient despite geopolitical turmoil, supported by robust earnings and high US margins. Growth is broadening across sectors and regions, though sustaining elevated US profitability may prove challenging as conditions evolve further ahead.

Global equities rose in January despite heightened geopolitical tensions, supported by resilient growth and broader market participation, while inflation trends, US policy and commodity moves shaped the month’s narrative.

January has turned the volume back up, but markets remain relatively resilient beneath the headlines.

Despite President Trump’s pressure and a criminal probe into Jerome Powell, the Fed’s independence largely held. Market reaction stayed muted, legal limits constrain Trump’s influence, and any politicised rate cuts risk credibility, inflation, and broader financial instability for global markets ahead. 

Clarity can feel scarce in uncertain times. Mark Sedwill offers a measured view on global dynamics and the value of long-term thinking.

Since WWII, geopolitics split into East and West, but that model may fade. U.S. assertiveness contrasts Europe’s passivity, hinting at three major players.

Planning for retirement early helps secure your finances and gives you the freedom to enjoy travel, hobbies or family time. These key questions can guide you

US tariffs hit post-war highs but haven’t derailed growth. Global trade rose 4%, supply chains rerouted, and US demand stayed resilient. Inflation impact muted as tariff revenues recycle into tax cuts, softening consumer costs.

Five Macro Myths: AI drives U.S. growth but with limits; layoffs fears overstated; Trump’s influence wanes; UK remains stable, not emerging; and year-end market optimism persists despite uncertainty.

Tariffs, elections, AI and a shining moment for gold: 2025 gave us plenty to discuss.