Skip to main content

Location & language

Select Region Select Language

Asset Management: Monthly Macro Insights - January 2025

Published date

In 2024, global growth has remained stable and world trade has been recovering, while price pressures continued to ebb. Investors project that this resilience will continue in 2025, with inflation further converging towards central banks’ targets. However, this outlook masks significant differences across sectors and countries, and is surrounded by important uncertainties.

Downside risks in the US…

The global economy has proved resilient in the last year, but is in large part explained by the US which experienced the fastest GDP growth in all G7 countries in the past two years and this exceptionalism would persist this year according to the latest OECD economic projections. Yet, while the recent pattern of unexpected US resilience could continue, risks are nonetheless skewed to the downside.

Read the full version

… and Europe

Economic growth in Europe has been mediocre in 2024, as GDP probably expanded less than 1 per cent in the UK and the Eurozone. Looking ahead, recent indicators suggest ongoing weakness with the PMI business confidence index, hovering around the neutral 50-threshold at the end of 2024, thus flagging downside risks to investors’ sanguine forecasts.

China’s murky outlook

Since the end of September, China’s growth has shown some tentative signs of steadying due to the recent policy push. For instance, the decline in house prices across major cities slowed in November for the first time since early 2024, although retail sales growth unexpectedly weakened. Inflation decelerated in November to a mere 0.2 per cent from 0.3 per cent, a sign that the domestic economy remains fragile. The government is expected to unleash more measures, but the extent of the support will likely be adjusted depending on the degree of the external drag.

Read the Monthly Macro Insights - January 2025

by Marc-Antoine Collard, Chief Economist and Head of Economic Research

Read more articles

Insights Issue 18: Wealth in motion

As wealth becomes increasingly global, investors are spreading their lives, assets and opportunities across borders. Explore how a more connected world is reshaping the way capital is managed and grown.

 The Midterms

A Democratic sweep may increase political gridlock, but history suggests limited market impact, with resilient US growth, strong corporate profitability and consumers remaining more important drivers for investors.

 A quiet budget that may still change the landscape

The 2026 Budget brought limited headline change but potentially significant long-term implications, particularly for business owners, property investors and savers, through higher tax rates, new Founders Relief and company reforms.

 Research Matters by Rothschild & Co Redburn

How much AI infrastructure does the world need - and how is it going to be funded? Rothschild & Co Redburn's Global Head of Technology Alex Haissl joins Chief Strategist George Karamanos to explore the scale of the data centre buildout, the financing structures underpinning it and the prospects for sustainable returns. They discuss the balance between training and inference, the importance of enterprise adoption, and what credit markets and open-source competition could signal for the next phase of AI investment.

 UK Budget - first impressions

The Budget delivers modest fiscal changes with limited portfolio impact, while reinforcing the UK’s manageable debt outlook, although its collection of smaller measures appears driven more by politics than economics.

 Concrete decisions - pay now or pay later

The built environment must balance decarbonisation, climate resilience and affordability, with collaboration across housebuilders, policymakers, investors and suppliers essential to creating sustainable, resilient homes that deliver long-term value for communities.