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Asset Management: Monthly Macro Insights - January 2025

Published

In 2024, global growth has remained stable and world trade has been recovering, while price pressures continued to ebb. Investors project that this resilience will continue in 2025, with inflation further converging towards central banks’ targets. However, this outlook masks significant differences across sectors and countries, and is surrounded by important uncertainties.

Downside risks in the US…

The global economy has proved resilient in the last year, but is in large part explained by the US which experienced the fastest GDP growth in all G7 countries in the past two years and this exceptionalism would persist this year according to the latest OECD economic projections. Yet, while the recent pattern of unexpected US resilience could continue, risks are nonetheless skewed to the downside.

Read the full version

… and Europe

Economic growth in Europe has been mediocre in 2024, as GDP probably expanded less than 1 per cent in the UK and the Eurozone. Looking ahead, recent indicators suggest ongoing weakness with the PMI business confidence index, hovering around the neutral 50-threshold at the end of 2024, thus flagging downside risks to investors’ sanguine forecasts.

China’s murky outlook

Since the end of September, China’s growth has shown some tentative signs of steadying due to the recent policy push. For instance, the decline in house prices across major cities slowed in November for the first time since early 2024, although retail sales growth unexpectedly weakened. Inflation decelerated in November to a mere 0.2 per cent from 0.3 per cent, a sign that the domestic economy remains fragile. The government is expected to unleash more measures, but the extent of the support will likely be adjusted depending on the degree of the external drag.

Read the Monthly Macro Insights - January 2025

by Marc-Antoine Collard, Chief Economist and Head of Economic Research

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Rothschild & Co appoints Pablo Hernandez Schmidt-Tophoff as Head of Energy Services & Decarbonization, North America

Rothschild & Co today announced that Pablo Hernandez Schmidt-Tophoff has joined its Global Advisory business as Managing Director, Head of Houston and Head of Energy Services & Decarbonization, North America.

 Asset Management: Monthly Macro Insights - October 2026

Investments linked to artificial intelligence continue to support global growth, but they are also contributing to a sustained rise in long-term interest rates. At the same time, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s communication are maintaining a more fragile economic environment.

 Debt and taxes

Fiscal debates focus on debt and deficits, but government size may matter more. While debt shows little link to bond yields, higher taxes and spending can affect competitiveness, growth and economic efficiency.

 France: Fiscal pressure

France’s political uncertainty and fiscal pressures have unsettled markets, widening bond spreads and weakening the euro. While risks remain elevated ahead of 2027 elections, France’s challenges stop short of a sovereign debt crisis.

 Emotionally invested

This Quarterly Letter explores how emotions and behavioural biases can undermine investment decisions. It highlights the importance of discipline, perspective and a clear long-term purpose in preserving and growing wealth through market uncertainty.

 Entrepreneur Networking Dinner

Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK recently hosted an intimate networking dinner to encourage the conversations and connections that rarely happen in the day-to-day demands of building a business.