News & Insights

Economic growth in advanced economies has been very weak in Q3-23, but the US was the notable exception, giving the impression the global economy remained resilient. Are we on a path of ‘immaculate disinflation’, or is the fall in inflation increasingly the reflection of a deteriorating economy?

The last few months have seen global consumer confidence dip back to still-depressed levels, while business confidence has weakened in most countries. Still, investors remain somewhat optimistic as they foresee the resilience of the global economy amid the end of the monetary tightening.

Most investors continue to foresee the resilience of the global economy despite the fastest global monetary policy tightening in four decades. However, not only the impacts of the latter are increasingly visible on economic activity, but the rise in crude oil prices and higher bond yields since midyear have raised new concerns regarding the goldilocks scenario.

Over the past months, narratives dominated by central bank tightening producing an inevitable recession have faded from the scene. However, the economic outlook remains particularly uncertain amid further deterioration in business confidence.

After some resilience in early 2023, the economic outlook remains particularly uncertain amid further deterioration in business confidence. Yet, investors continue to foresee a soft landing.

Investors remain convinced that inflation is likely to come down without much of a hit to economic growth. However, there is not much historical precedent for such an outcome, especially since monetary tightening is not completed, and the effects of higher policy rates are yet to be felt completely.

Recent surveys have hinted at a slowdown in economic growth, but underlying inflation is proving more persistent, pressuring central banks to hike rates further. Yet, how tightening credit conditions interact with already restrictive monetary policy stances is a key uncertainty.

While tracking a firmer pace than feared in Q1-23 GDP, incoming reports suggest much of the strength can be attributed to China. Meanwhile, central banks have continued their tightening campaign amid stubbornly firm wage growth and sticky core inflation. Will they continue until something breaks?

The global economy started the year on a firmer note than feared. Yet, core inflation is still stubbornly high while banking sector woes make it clear that the most aggressive tightening cycle in decades is taking its toll. Correspondingly, central banks will have to balance the risks between price and financial stability.

Despite cautious central bank communication about the policy outlook, particularly in view of the persistent strength of labour markets, investors were expecting rate cuts in the second half of 2023 amid a fall in global inflation. Yet, recent macroeconomic data has poured cold water on their quick disinflation sanguine view.

Investors strongly believe that central banks are almost finished with their tightening campaign amid a fall in global inflation, and that policy rates will be lowered as soon as the second half of 2023. Still, uncertainty around this Goldilocks scenario remains elevated.

As expected, a fall in global inflation is underway, but labour markets remain tight. Correspondingly, the dilemma for central banks has become extensively complex.