News & Insights

The global economy is characterised by a fragile combination of resilience and vulnerability, with the US continuing to act as the main anchor of global growth. Markets are facing an environment in which inflation dynamics remain uneven and geopolitics have re-emerged as a central source of risk, while resilience is increasingly concentrated in a narrow set of drivers – most notably artificial intelligence.

The global economy enters 2026 navigating an unusual mix of resilience and structural tension, reflecting the enduring capacity of firms and households to absorb shocks. The key question is how long headwinds from shifting trade policies, geopolitical uncertainty, and weakening labour markets can continue to be offset by tailwinds from surging business investment and ongoing fiscal and monetary support.

The global economy has maintained dynamic growth since early 2022, despite shocks linked to supply chain disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (2022–2023), the synchronized tightening of global monetary policy (2023–2024), and the sharp increase in U.S. tariffs (2025). Will this impressive trajectory continue in 2026?

Despite geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, GDP growth in 2025 proved surprisingly resilient, slowing only slightly compared to 2024. However, vulnerabilities remain, as several factors that have supported the global economy thus far may prove to be temporary.

After years of pandemic-related disruptions, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical instability, the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) as a general-purpose technology is reshaping economic dynamics. While it offers upside potential, AI also evokes memories of the dot-com boom of the late 1990s.

Global economic conditions remain complex as we enter the final quarter of 2025. While growth has shown an unexpected resilience since Liberation Day, the interplay of trade frictions, inflation dynamics, and policy uncertainty continues to shape a challenging environment. Central banks, particularly the Fed, face a delicate balancing act: sustaining economic momentum without reigniting inflationary pressures.

Investors are hoping for accommodative monetary policy in a stable economic environment, with “insurance” or “normalization” rate cuts. However, the Goldilocks scenario is increasingly being tested as adverse inflation dynamics clash with a weakening labour market.

The global economy started 2025 on a solid footing as businesses and consumers rushed to front-run US tariffs by producing and buying more goods. Although several factors have unfolded more constructively than feared, was the drop in economic activity averted, or only delayed?

Economic activity remained relatively resilient in early 2025, although this stability was supported by temporary factors. In fact, global growth projections have been revised markedly down in recent weeks, reflecting tariff rates at levels not seen in a century and a highly unpredictable environment, while inflation risks have increased.

Global growth remained relatively resilient in early 2025. However, front-loading of global trade flows, particularly between Asia and North America, greatly distorted the reality. In fact, stagflation and recession risks have both increased significantly.

President Donald Trump’s trade-war salvo, the largest act of American protectionism since the 1930s, combined with his foreign policy’s complete shift, are sending significant shockwaves through the global economy. Although the full impact of phenomenal uncertainty is a key unknown, inflation and growth dynamics might well evolve opposite to investor’s Goldilocks scenario.

A trade conflict with the US’s closest economic partners might begin soon, and all indications are that these actions are a start to a widening trade war. The complete ramifications are unknown, yet the cost of uncertainty could be large and increases the risk of stagflation.