Insights

Die mittelständischen Unternehmen in den USA sind ein wichtiger Motor der US-Wirtschaft. Diese Unternehmen erwirtschaften einen Gesamtumsatz von 10 Billionen USD und beschäftigen rund 50 Millionen Arbeitnehmer, was sie zu einer attraktiven Investition auf dem Privatmarkt macht.

International tensions and geopolitical risk – which have rarely given rise to major market inflections and have often been relegated to the background by investors – are now back in the spotlight.

Das Hauptrisiko für die globalen Wachstumsaussichten bleibt die hartnäckige Inflation von heute. In dieser Marktperspektive beleuchten wir die makroökonomischen und marktbezogenen Rahmenbedingungen - einschließlich einer eingehenden Betrachtung des globalen Inflationsverlaufs - sowie den anstehenden politischen Kalender.

It is the worst calendar year return (so far) for bonds, some value may finally be re-emerging in the high-quality government bonds that comprise the core of the global market. Is it time to retire the acronym TINA (‘There is No Alternative’)?

Will another bad UK CPI hit growth? Real pay fell sharply in the last year after rising unexpectedly over the pandemic. Did consumers get used to that higher level of pay? If not, wiggle room now may be higher.

The US headline inflation rate softened in July, though there is still uncertainty over its trajectory going forward. In this Strategy Blog, we highlight a few important observations which suggest that this may not have been another false summit.

World GDP likely shrunk in Q2 2022 – for the first time since the 2020 pandemic related decrease – owing to economic downturns in China, Russia and the US. Is bad news truly good news?

Trotz anhaltender globaler Wachstums- und Inflationssorgen erholten sich die Kapitalmärkte im Juli: Die globalen Aktien legten deutlich zu, nachdem sie im Juni ein Jahrestief erreicht hatten. Auch die weltweiten Staatsanleihen verzeichneten kräftige Gewinne.

Die Stimmung unter den Anlegern hat sich seit der Marktperspektive vom Mai eingetrübt. Objektiv gesehen hat sich jedoch wenig geändert. In dieser Ausgabe erörtern wir die Risiken, die nach wie vor vom Ukraine-Konflikt ausgehen, warum die US-Wirtschaft näher an einer technischen Rezession ist, als wir zunächst dachten, und die Volatilität der Märkte.

While dramatic daily fluctuations in stock market indices are alarming, the current volatility in bond markets is perhaps even more concerning. In this Strategy Blog we examine the relationship between these asset classes amid this challenging investment landscape.

Die Volatilität war bei Aktien und Anleihen weiterhin hoch. Globale Aktien fielen stark und erreichten Mitte des Monats kurzzeitig ein neues Jahrestief, ebenso wie globale Staatsanleihen.

While the overriding narrative often deems ‘sticking to one’s guns’ as an admirable choice, as investors, we recognise the value of altering one’s approach where necessary. In this Quarterly Letter we discuss the language and psychology behind this phenomenon, and why changing your mind is so essential to long-term investing.

Die Kapitalmärkte waren im Mai volatil. Nach der längsten Serie wöchentlicher Verluste bei den wichtigsten Aktienindizes seit 2001 erholten sich die Aktien bis zum Monatsende, während die regionalen Anleiherenditen divergierten.

Property prices have surged to record levels. However, amid rising interest rates, supply-side issues, and ongoing inflationary pressure, investing in real estate looks increasingly risky. In this Strategy blog, we examine the factors underpinning this appetite from investors, and how long we can expect it to last.

When selling a business, entrepreneurs often underestimate this financial shift, particularly the need to replace a regular salary with an ‘income’ post-sale.

While market and consumer sentiment paint a dismal picture, the hard data points to a more positive outlook.

The global growth backdrop continues to weaken, yet the mix of elevated inflation and tightening labour market is generating urgency for central banks to normalise stances.

Almost two months after the initial invasion, the ultimate conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine crisis remains uncertain. While the knock-on effect on energy supplies remains a concern, robust growth and labour markets provide some optimism as we await the realisation of more substantive interest rate rises.

In der neuesten Ausgabe von Mosaique Insights, unserer Kundenpublikation, befassen wir uns eingehend mit der Weltwirtschaft, der Behavioral Finance und den jüngsten geopolitischen Ereignissen.

The global economy is facing three interrelated shocks. New Covid-19 cases are once again gaining momentum in Europe and Asia – especially in China – worsening supply chain disruptions. In addition, the war in Ukraine will hinder global growth through many different channels. Lastly, central banks are under significant pressure to quickly normalise policy stances.

In this Strategy Blog, we wanted to highlight some points that might paint a slightly more optimistic picture of the UK economy.

Alongside the terrible human cost, the conflict will have an economic impact: more inflation, and less growth.

In reaction to the invasion of Ukraine late last week, instead of military intervention, numerous sanctions were taken in order to isolate Russia from the rest of the world, with the goal of weakening it economically.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resulting sanctions have shaken the oil markets and pushed prices upwards. What can be expected next?

The precipitous turn for the worse in the geopolitical situation and its consequences on the financial markets calls for a careful analysis.

This edition delves into the relationship between interest rates, markets and the global economy, and how this may help control inflationary pressure.

"The global cloud computing market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 16.3% as companies spending on software, infrastructure and platform services strengthen in the wake of the Pandemic".

Russia's intimidation of Ukraine has long been one of the most visible potential geopolitical flashpoints (Taiwan is another). It is starting to make investors nervous: do we need to rethink our macro advice?