Insights

Populism is reshaping politics across the US and Europe, drawing parties away from the traditional centre. Rather than left versus right, voters increasingly divide along establishment versus anti-establishment lines, creating opportunities for populist movements and challenging conventional political assumptions.

Interest rate expectations have shifted markedly in 2026, with markets now anticipating higher rates amid persistent inflation, economic resilience and more hawkish central banks. Despite this, strong AI-driven earnings have supported equities.

As we head into the summer, the second half of 2026 looks set to be defined less by any single crisis than by continuing geopolitical shifts across multiple arenas. The simmering conflict in the Gulf continues. US politics is entering an important phase as we approach the midterms. Across Europe, populist sentiment is increasingly setting the national agenda, as the EU continues to double down on Made in Europe. Running through all of this is a steady erosion of trust between traditional partners that is pushing countries to hedge, diversify and act in their own self-interest.

Following Keir Starmer’s resignation, Andy Burnham has emerged as Labour’s likely successor. Despite political uncertainty, markets remain calm, with economic and geopolitical trends outweighing domestic politics. Significant policy change appears unlikely.

Markets are preparing for a wave of megacap IPOs led by SpaceX, amid strong AI-driven optimism. While liquidity should absorb issuance comfortably, questions remain around valuations, passive investing, concentration risk and index influence.

A long-term, disciplined approach to investing prioritises quality companies and wealth preservation over short-term trends. Amid significant changes to tax rules—particularly around inheritance and estates—careful planning, regular review, and close collaboration with advisers remain essential to achieving sustainable outcomes.

The latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory.

The latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory reviews an extraordinary February. $181bn raised in US Growth equity was the biggest monthly total ever, a 24-fold yoy increase and means YTD US fundraising of $216bn is just $18bn short of the total for all of 2025. Into March conflict in Iran is leading to volatile public markets.

The military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has crossed a decisive economic threshold. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has transformed a geopolitical risk into a global supply shock affecting energy markets, supply chains, inflation dynamics, and monetary policy worldwide. The resulting environment could evolve into one of elevated inflationary pressure with weakening growth, increasing the likelihood of slowflation and raising the tail risk of stagflation.

The latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory reviews an extraordinary February. $181bn raised in US Growth equity was the biggest monthly total ever, a 24-fold yoy increase and means YTD US fundraising of $216bn is just $18bn short of the total for all of 2025. Into March conflict in Iran is leading to volatile public markets.

This is the latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory. The US growth equity market grew 2.1x by value in 2025 to $234bn (2024 $109.7bn). The growth was fuelled by AI raises which grew 3.3x yoy and accounted for 57% of total proceeds. Europe, where the AI effect was less marked and the leading sector was software, saw the value of raises grow by 44% in 2025 to $49.2bn.

This is the latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory. 52% of the $63.4bn raised by the US growth equity market in Q4, up 31% yoy, was for AI companies. Datacentres, defence and crypto made strong showings. In this edition we look at the rise of the prediction marketplaces, Polymarket and Kalshi. Polymarket’s $2bn November raise at an $8bn valuation was up from $1.2bn in January. Kalshi’s valuation was $2bn in June and $11bn in November. We predict what’s ahead for them in 2026.

Rothschild & Co Redburn have shared their final review of 2025, where they discuss all these questions, and more.

After years of pandemic-related disruptions, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical instability, the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) as a general-purpose technology is reshaping economic dynamics. While it offers upside potential, AI also evokes memories of the dot-com boom of the late 1990s.

Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK provides globally diversified, preservation-focused wealth management for US clients. Our bottom-up investment approach prioritises prudent growth and long-term security.

In this edition of Insights – The Swiss Edge, we explore how Switzerland blends tradition with adaptability to remain a trusted home for wealth.

This issue explores how solar is fuelling the prospect of a new era of cheap energy; why beauty M&A is resurging, with indie brands like rhode at the forefront; and a split-screen AI debate: scepticism over productivity gains versus the promise of agentic AI transforming design engineering. Read these and more in September’s edition of the review.