Insights

In recent years, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has taken centre stage, fuelled by spectacular promises and applications that are now very much a reality. We have already noted on several occasions that this revolution is underpinned by less visible building blocks, such as strategic metals, data centres and electricity grids. Recent developments invite us to broaden that perspective even further.

Many business owners accumulate cash without a clear strategy. By separating operational, reserve and surplus capital, businesses can improve resilience, reduce concentration risk, manage tax considerations more effectively, and ensure excess cash supports longer-term business and personal objectives.

Japan’s yen has weakened sharply, reviving concerns over carry-trade unwinding and global market volatility. Yet Japan’s stronger growth, rising wages, higher inflation, corporate reforms, and improving shareholder focus suggest a structural economic revival, though sustained profitability remains the key test.

With soil degradation threatening food security, regenerative agriculture offers proven solutions. Success depends on valuing nature, supporting farmers, empowering consumers, and aligning incentives across policymakers, businesses, investors and growers.

Populism is reshaping politics across the US and Europe, drawing parties away from the traditional centre. Rather than left versus right, voters increasingly divide along establishment versus anti-establishment lines, creating opportunities for populist movements and challenging conventional political assumptions.

Against a backdrop of resilience of the global economy and the rise of artificial intelligence, Didier Bouvignies reflects on the key drivers behind the first-half market rally and shares his outlook for the second half.

After a strong start to the year for the fixed income markets, the environment has gradually become more complex. Yet the credit market initially benefited from a favorable environment: resilient global growth, gradual disinflation, and central banks perceived as likely to ease monetary policy.

The second quarter of 2026 marked an important turning point for European equities. Following the correction at the end of March, driven by concerns over a prolonged energy shock, markets gradually regained visibility as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased and energy prices declined.

As we head into the summer, the second half of 2026 looks set to be defined less by any single crisis than by continuing geopolitical shifts across multiple arenas. The simmering conflict in the Gulf continues. US politics is entering an important phase as we approach the midterms. Across Europe, populist sentiment is increasingly setting the national agenda, as the EU continues to double down on Made in Europe. Running through all of this is a steady erosion of trust between traditional partners that is pushing countries to hedge, diversify and act in their own self-interest.

While geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation continue to shape the global economic landscape, developments in energy markets have reduced some of the most immediate threats to growth and inflation.

Significant wealth brings complex financial and personal decisions. Rothschild & Co helps coordinate trusted advisers, ensuring aligned, objective guidance, long-term planning and access to specialist expertise through a personalised advisory board.

Global equities rose despite geopolitical tensions, as markets looked through near-term risks. AI infrastructure spending drove returns and earnings growth, valuations sent mixed signals, and corporate activity remained subdued but showed signs of recovery.

Markets are preparing for a wave of megacap IPOs led by SpaceX, amid strong AI-driven optimism. While liquidity should absorb issuance comfortably, questions remain around valuations, passive investing, concentration risk and index influence.

The latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory.

Switzerland’s upcoming referendum to cap population at 10 million may tighten migration and risk EU ties, but economic impact likely limited, with living standards, markets and growth resilient over time.

A long-term, disciplined approach to investing prioritises quality companies and wealth preservation over short-term trends. Amid significant changes to tax rules—particularly around inheritance and estates—careful planning, regular review, and close collaboration with advisers remain essential to achieving sustainable outcomes.

The latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory.

Global supply chains face rising stress but remain resilient. Hormuz disruption halted key energy flows, prompting rerouting. Delivery times have lengthened slightly, shipping rates remain contained, and trade volumes stay healthy. Overall pressure is rising, though far below pandemic-era supply chain disruption.

The disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has transformed a regional geopolitical event into a global economic shock, driving up energy and transport costs while adding pressure to supply chains worldwide.

The latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory reviews an extraordinary February. $181bn raised in US Growth equity was the biggest monthly total ever, a 24-fold yoy increase and means YTD US fundraising of $216bn is just $18bn short of the total for all of 2025. Into March conflict in Iran is leading to volatile public markets.

The military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has crossed a decisive economic threshold. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has transformed a geopolitical risk into a global supply shock affecting energy markets, supply chains, inflation dynamics, and monetary policy worldwide. The resulting environment could evolve into one of elevated inflationary pressure with weakening growth, increasing the likelihood of slowflation and raising the tail risk of stagflation.

The latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory reviews an extraordinary February. $181bn raised in US Growth equity was the biggest monthly total ever, a 24-fold yoy increase and means YTD US fundraising of $216bn is just $18bn short of the total for all of 2025. Into March conflict in Iran is leading to volatile public markets.

This is the latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory. The US growth equity market grew 2.1x by value in 2025 to $234bn (2024 $109.7bn). The growth was fuelled by AI raises which grew 3.3x yoy and accounted for 57% of total proceeds. Europe, where the AI effect was less marked and the leading sector was software, saw the value of raises grow by 44% in 2025 to $49.2bn.

The global economy enters 2026 navigating an unusual mix of resilience and structural tension, reflecting the enduring capacity of firms and households to absorb shocks. The key question is how long headwinds from shifting trade policies, geopolitical uncertainty, and weakening labour markets can continue to be offset by tailwinds from surging business investment and ongoing fiscal and monetary support.

In our latest geopolitical blog, Mark Sedwill, Chair of Geopolitical Advisory at Rothschild & Co offers his reflections on six strategic reasons for Christmas confidence.

This is the latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory. 52% of the $63.4bn raised by the US growth equity market in Q4, up 31% yoy, was for AI companies. Datacentres, defence and crypto made strong showings. In this edition we look at the rise of the prediction marketplaces, Polymarket and Kalshi. Polymarket’s $2bn November raise at an $8bn valuation was up from $1.2bn in January. Kalshi’s valuation was $2bn in June and $11bn in November. We predict what’s ahead for them in 2026.

Rothschild & Co Redburn have shared their final review of 2025, where they discuss all these questions, and more.

This is the November 2025 Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory. The market has started to contemplate a potential bubble in AI valuations even as the AI industry continues to drive forward fund raising in US growth equity. In this edition we look at the role of Nvidia, the world’s largest company, in the AI ecosystem and its growth raises, at the accelerating rate of unicorn creation and the improving exit market in 2025.