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After a strong start to the year for the fixed income markets, the environment has gradually become more complex. Yet the credit market initially benefited from a favorable environment: resilient global growth, gradual disinflation, and central banks perceived as likely to ease monetary policy.

Against a backdrop of resilience of the global economy and the rise of artificial intelligence, Didier Bouvignies reflects on the key drivers behind the first-half market rally and shares his outlook for the second half.

The second quarter of 2026 marked an important turning point for European equities. Following the correction at the end of March, driven by concerns over a prolonged energy shock, markets gradually regained visibility as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased and energy prices declined.

The latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory.

Interest rate expectations have shifted markedly in 2026, with markets now anticipating higher rates amid persistent inflation, economic resilience and more hawkish central banks. Despite this, strong AI-driven earnings have supported equities.

As we head into the summer, the second half of 2026 looks set to be defined less by any single crisis than by continuing geopolitical shifts across multiple arenas. The simmering conflict in the Gulf continues. US politics is entering an important phase as we approach the midterms. Across Europe, populist sentiment is increasingly setting the national agenda, as the EU continues to double down on Made in Europe. Running through all of this is a steady erosion of trust between traditional partners that is pushing countries to hedge, diversify and act in their own self-interest.

While geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation continue to shape the global economic landscape, developments in energy markets have reduced some of the most immediate threats to growth and inflation.

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Global equities rose despite geopolitical tensions, as markets looked through near-term risks. AI infrastructure spending drove returns and earnings growth, valuations sent mixed signals, and corporate activity remained subdued but showed signs of recovery.

Rothschild & Co Redburn analysts unpack the forces reshaping markets and society: from the future of stablecoins to AI’s quiet revolution in construction and the multi-decade grid supercycle transforming energy infrastructure.

Following Keir Starmer’s resignation, Andy Burnham has emerged as Labour’s likely successor. Despite political uncertainty, markets remain calm, with economic and geopolitical trends outweighing domestic politics. Significant policy change appears unlikely.