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France: Fiscal pressure
And so, the mantle of political instability passes from the UK to Europe. Spain is heading for a snap election after Pedro Sánchez called an early vote, but it is France which continues to steal the show.
So far, so good?
As markets enter the final quarter of the year, investors have plenty to digest. Growth remains surprisingly resilient, even as energy prices rise, bond yields climb and inflation risks linger.
Bonds, ballots, and the Elephant in the Room
Three themes have been shaping portfolios through the summer: politics; bond yields; and (inevitably) AI. The collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire has pushed oil prices higher again, but not (yet) to levels which threaten more significant disruption to global business.
Markets refuse to blink
Markets have had plenty to digest over the summer. Yet they remain remarkably resilient.
Bond yields rise in this summer markets
Amid geopolitical uncertainty, economic growth remains robust and financial markets continue to show resilience.
Japan – beyond the carry trade
Japan’s yen has weakened sharply, reviving concerns over carry-trade unwinding and global market volatility. Yet Japan’s stronger growth, rising wages, higher inflation, corporate reforms, and improving shareholder focus suggest a structural economic revival, though sustained pro