Trump and the dollar

Middle East hostilities are intensifying; not one, but two maritime chokepoints are supposedly closed, and Brent crude has hit the psychologically threatening $100/bbl level once again.

In business, competitors often converge on the middle to capture the largest share of demand. Yet in politics, the opposite seems to be happening. Across the US and Europe, parties are moving away from the centre, while populist movements continue to gain ground.

As the FIFA World Cup 2026 draws to a close, the focus may be on the finalists, but some of the most valuable lessons extend well beyond the pitch.

Recent geopolitical tensions have had less impact on markets than many had feared. Lower energy prices have helped ease inflation concerns, while continued investment in artificial intelligence is supporting economic growth and corporate earnings.  

Interest rates in 2026 are heading in the opposite direction to what money markets thought. Rates are projected to rise in the US and UK, and have already risen at the ECB. At the start of the year, US and UK rates were seen falling and ECB rates staying put.

As we reach the halfway point of the year, markets continue to present investors with both opportunities and challenges.