Against a backdrop of resilience of the global economy and the rise of artificial intelligence, Didier Bouvignies, General Partner and CIO at Rothschild & Co Asset Management, reflects on the key drivers behind the first-half market rally and shares his outlook for the second half.
Japan’s yen has weakened sharply, reviving concerns over carry-trade unwinding and global market volatility. Yet Japan’s stronger growth, rising wages, higher inflation, corporate reforms, and improving shareholder focus suggest a structural economic revival, though sustained profitability remains the key test.
Populism is reshaping politics across the US and Europe, drawing parties away from the traditional centre. Rather than left versus right, voters increasingly divide along establishment versus anti-establishment lines, creating opportunities for populist movements and challenging conventional political assumptions.
After a strong start to the year for the fixed income markets, the environment has gradually become more complex. Yet the credit market initially benefited from a favorable environment: resilient global growth, gradual disinflation, and central banks perceived as likely to ease monetary policy.