Insights

Despite geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, GDP growth in 2025 proved surprisingly resilient, slowing only slightly compared to 2024. However, vulnerabilities remain, as several factors that have supported the global economy thus far may prove to be temporary.

Five Macro Myths: AI drives U.S. growth but with limits; layoffs fears overstated; Trump’s influence wanes; UK remains stable, not emerging; and year-end market optimism persists despite uncertainty.

In this Market Perspective, we examine resilient markets navigating geopolitical strains, sticky inflation, ambitious AI valuations, rising tariffs, and shifting debt dynamics, and why disciplined positioning and strategic agility remain essential for long-term growth.

Longevity, driven by healthy and connected lifestyles, is emerging as a megatrend. It is reshaping economies and opening new avenues for ESG investing.

This is the November 2025 Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory. The market has started to contemplate a potential bubble in AI valuations even as the AI industry continues to drive forward fund raising in US growth equity. In this edition we look at the role of Nvidia, the world’s largest company, in the AI ecosystem and its growth raises, at the accelerating rate of unicorn creation and the improving exit market in 2025.

After years of pandemic-related disruptions, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical instability, the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) as a general-purpose technology is reshaping economic dynamics. While it offers upside potential, AI also evokes memories of the dot-com boom of the late 1990s.

European growth needs more than demand-side fixes, it requires focus on output and products. Innovation, targeted government support, and sustainable production are key to driving inclusive, lasting economic development.

This is the latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory. October 12 2025 marked the third anniversary of the start of the current bull market that has seen the S&P500 rise by c90%, NASDAQ by c120% and the FTSE Venture Capital Index by 170%. At $7.1bn September was the biggest value month in European growth equity raises since 2021 while the $34.9bn ytd total already surpasses full year 2024.YTD US raises are $160.8bn, 1.5x 2024. AI and software lead the way on both sides of the Atlantic.

The 2025 Finance Act abolished the non-dom regime, increasing tax exposure. Former non-doms must reassess investment strategies, consider wrappers, review offshore accounts, and explore the FIG regime for potential tax relief and planning opportunities.

The TRF allows former non-doms to repatriate offshore income and gains at reduced tax rates, enabling UK investment. Rothschild & Co supports account setup, investment planning, and wrapper selection alongside expert tax advisers.

The US government entered a partial shutdown due to healthcare funding disputes. Economic impact depends on duration; markets remain stable, but worker furloughs and data delays pose risks.

In this edition of Insights – The Swiss Edge, we explore how Switzerland blends tradition with adaptability to remain a trusted home for wealth.

This issue explores how solar is fuelling the prospect of a new era of cheap energy; why beauty M&A is resurging, with indie brands like rhode at the forefront; and a split-screen AI debate: scepticism over productivity gains versus the promise of agentic AI transforming design engineering. Read these and more in September’s edition of the review.

Our wealth framework brings clarity and structure to personal finances by dividing wealth into distinct “pots,”. This approach helps individuals visualise their wealth in a more meaningful way, moving beyond abstract numbers to focus on real-life goals, such as lifestyle needs, long-term security, growth opportunities, and business interests.

The 20th-century distinction between security and economics has dissolved. The investors and businesses who adapt to this new reality - recognising co-dependence, building integration and demanding reform - will be those best placed to navigate volatility and seize opportunity in the contested decade ahead. In our latest geopolitical blog, Mark Sedwill, Chair of Geopolitical Advisory at Rothschild & Co, reflects on the context and opportunities for investment in the defence sector.

This is the latest Growth Equity Update from Patrick Wellington, Vice-Chairman of Equity Advisory. In September’s update we dive into the world of venture capital investment in emerging sports leagues; look at how the German government is supporting VC investment in the Federal Republic; and review the big investors who have supercharged the $131bn invested in US and European AI LLM and foundation models since the start of 2023.

The Fed cut rates amid strong demand and inflation, signaling more easing ahead despite resilient growth, market optimism, and rising geopolitical, valuation, and policy risks. Markets remain buoyant, but concerns over economic cracks and overvaluation suggest caution as financial conditions loosen and geopolitical tensions persist.

Britain and France face political instability, weak economies, and rising populism. Yet, despite fiscal strains and public discontent, markets remain resilient, and long-term debt challenges may still be manageable.

France faces political uncertainty as PM Bayrou’s minority government risks collapse ahead of a 8 September confidence vote. Budget issues, rising populism, and high debt challenge stability, but market impacts remain limited—for now.

China’s stock market is up ~28% in 2025, outperforming globally, but structural issues persist. Property woes, deflation risks, and geopolitical tensions cloud the outlook despite resilient exports and targeted policy support.

Despite fears, pensions aren't doomed. The real issue is economic output, not savings. Growth depends on labour, innovation, and productivity—not demographics alone. Misframed debates risk worsening outcomes unnecessarily.

In this Market Perspective, resilient markets continue to mask global uncertainty. AI optimism fuels tech stock momentum, but valuations remain stretched. With inflation sticky and tariffs rising, strategic caution persists in a shifting investment landscape.

The global economy started 2025 on a solid footing as businesses and consumers rushed to front-run US tariffs by producing and buying more goods. Although several factors have unfolded more constructively than feared, was the drop in economic activity averted, or only delayed?

Emerging market stocks are outperforming developed markets in 2025, driven by broad-based earnings growth. Especially in Asia, amid stable currencies, improved fundamentals, and renewed investor sentiment.

In the July edition we review Growth Equity activity in H1 2025. Led by AI, the value of US VC company fundraises rose 2.6x yoy to $121bn in H1 2025. European VC raises of $20m+ saw a 23% yoy advance in value. Exit value is picking up but new fundraising by VC firms remains subdued.

Trump threatens new tariffs from August; markets react cautiously. Compromise expected, but trade tensions, volatility, and uncertainty remain elevated globally.

No parent wants to pass on wealth to their children and watch them fritter it away. Here’s how to give your family the best chance in life while ensuring your wealth is protected for generations to come.

Capital markets have outperformed expectations in 2025, despite political and economic turbulence. While risks remain, resilient fundamentals and cautious optimism support current valuations.

Rooted in our long-term philosophy, this Quarterly Letter explores the full arc of an investment - from idea generation to divestment. Illustrated through a case study of Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC).

President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” proposes ~$3tn in tax cuts and spending, plausibly one of the single biggest fiscal handouts in US history. However, there are ongoing political and economic considerations.