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Against a backdrop of resilience of the global economy and the rise of artificial intelligence, Didier Bouvignies reflects on the key drivers behind the first-half market rally and shares his outlook for the second half.

After a strong start to the year for the fixed income markets, the environment has gradually become more complex. Yet the credit market initially benefited from a favorable environment: resilient global growth, gradual disinflation, and central banks perceived as likely to ease monetary policy.

The second quarter of 2026 marked an important turning point for European equities. Following the correction at the end of March, driven by concerns over a prolonged energy shock, markets gradually regained visibility as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased and energy prices declined.

While geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation continue to shape the global economic landscape, developments in energy markets have reduced some of the most immediate threats to growth and inflation.

Despite the geopolitical shock involving Iran, investors’ optimism continues to rest on a central narrative: the transformative potential of artificial intelligence (AI) as a new engine of global growth. However, the rise in long-term yields paints a more cautious picture

The disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has transformed a regional geopolitical event into a global economic shock, driving up energy and transport costs while adding pressure to supply chains worldwide.

The military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has crossed a decisive economic threshold. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has transformed a geopolitical risk into a global supply shock affecting energy markets, supply chains, inflation dynamics, and monetary policy worldwide. The resulting environment could evolve into one of elevated inflationary pressure with weakening growth, increasing the likelihood of slowflation and raising the tail risk of stagflation.

The global economy is characterised by a fragile combination of resilience and vulnerability, with the US continuing to act as the main anchor of global growth. Markets are facing an environment in which inflation dynamics remain uneven and geopolitics have re-emerged as a central source of risk, while resilience is increasingly concentrated in a narrow set of drivers – most notably artificial intelligence.