Insights

The sticky nature of today’s inflation remains the key risk to the global growth outlook. In this Market Perspective, we explore the macro and market backdrop – including a deep dive into the global inflation trajectory – along with the upcoming political calendar.

It is the worst calendar year return (so far) for bonds, some value may finally be re-emerging in the high-quality government bonds that comprise the core of the global market. Is it time to retire the acronym TINA (‘There is No Alternative’)?

A volatile month saw capital markets reverse their initial gains in August: both global equities and global government bonds came under pressure after the Fed signalled that US interest rates will rise further and stay higher for longer.

UK inflation, already at uncomfortable levels, is set to grind higher, peaking at 13% by year-end – according to the Bank of England – followed by only a gradual descent to perhaps 6% by the end of 2023.

Despite ongoing global growth and inflation concerns, capital markets recovered in July: global equities rose significantly after hitting a low for the year in June. Global government bonds also posted strong gains.

In the 9th edition of Mosaique Insights we take a closer look at what type of investments can thrive in challenging times and shed some light on the topic of inflation. We will also take you on a trip to the Nordics and introduce you to our new Rothschild & Co Switzerland Art Collection and Exhibition Series.

The investment mood has darkened since May’s Market Perspective. Objectively, however, little has changed. Within this edition, we discuss the risks still being posed by the Ukraine conflict, why the US economy is closer to a technical recession than we first thought and the volatility within markets.

While dramatic daily fluctuations in stock market indices are alarming, the current volatility in bond markets is perhaps even more concerning. In this Strategy Blog we examine the relationship between these asset classes amid this challenging investment landscape.

Capital markets were volatile through May. After the longest series of weekly losses for major equity indices since 2001, equities recovered by month-end, while regional bond yields diverged.

Property prices have surged to record levels. However, amid rising interest rates, supply-side issues, and ongoing inflationary pressure, investing in real estate looks increasingly risky. In this Strategy blog, we examine the factors underpinning this appetite from investors, and how long we can expect it to last.

While market and consumer sentiment paint a dismal picture, the hard data points to a more positive outlook.

Consumer prices continue to surge across the globe, reaching record highs in western economies. In this Strategy Blog, we assess the causes of this inflationary pressure, how policy makers are responding (or not), before discussing how this might pan out in the coming months

In April, investor sentiment deteriorated with the prospect of an even tighter monetary policy. Global equities lost 8.0%, while global investment grade bonds fell 4.2% (in USD).

Almost two months after the initial invasion, the ultimate conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine crisis remains uncertain. While the knock-on effect on energy supplies remains a concern, robust growth and labour markets provide some optimism as we await the realisation of more substantive interest rate rises.

In the most recent edition of our flagship client publication we dive deep in the world economy, behavioural finance and recent geo-political events.

Capital markets fluctuated heavily as investors digested economic and geopolitical risks: Global equities rose 2.1% (in USD terms), while global investment grade bonds fell 2.2% (in USD).

Alongside the terrible human cost, the conflict will have an economic impact: more inflation, and less growth.

What happens to the private debt asset class when interest rates rise? We explore the concept of an all-weather investment strategy.

Hard hit by the Ukraine crisis equities ended the month down -2.6% (in USD terms), alongside global government bonds, -2.1% (in USD, unhedged).

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resulting sanctions have shaken the oil markets and pushed prices upwards. What can be expected next?

Despite record level inflation in Western countries, central banks have been reluctant to significantly tighten monetary policy until now.

Russia's intimidation of Ukraine has long been one of the most visible potential geopolitical flashpoints (Taiwan is another). It is starting to make investors nervous: do we need to rethink our macro advice?