Nachrichten und Einblicke

Idiosyncratic headwinds compounded by losses on its treasury and mortgage-backed security portfolio lead to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Are there signs of contagion? In this Strategy blog, we analyse the situation around the collapse and consider further risks.

Despite cautious central bank communication about the policy outlook, particularly in view of the persistent strength of labour markets, investors were expecting rate cuts in the second half of 2023 amid a fall in global inflation. Yet, recent macroeconomic data has poured cold water on their quick disinflation sanguine view.

This International Women's Day we open the door to the Rothschild Archive. In the latest episode Wealth Management Switzerland's Perspectives podcast, Laura Künlen and Melanie Aspey, Director of the Rothschild Archive, shed light on how the women of the Rothschild family shaped the early days of the business and how their legacy translates till today.

Lower commodity prices, including energy prices, are trickling down to consumers, affecting both sides of the Atlantic slightly differently. In this strategy blog, we examine how the energy crisis has abated a year after the outbreak of war in Ukraine and its impact.

Der Februar erwies sich als schwieriger Monat für die Kapitalmärkte, da das erneute Zinsrisiko durch eine weitere goldpolitische Straffung in den Mittelpunkt rückte. Sowohl globale Aktien als auch Staatsanleihen sind letzten Monat gefallen.

A challenging and unusual cyclical backdrop has impacted the credit cycle. Credit spreads have narrowed and default rates remain low, with relative debt position declining due to faster nominal growth and ongoing deleveraging. As momentum continues, credit spreads may narrow more.

Will there be a recession? Is inflation indeed fading? And is it time for eurozone stocks to outperform? Find out more in the latest instalment of the Perspectives podcast.

As incoming data shows inflation rolling over—despite low unemployment—the good news may not last. But what happens next? In this Strategy Blog, we discuss the state of inflation and why interest rates look more like plateaus than peaks, leaving us at odds with the money markets.

Sinkende Realeinkommen, steigende Inflation und geldpolitische Straffung haben zu einem Gefühl des wirtschaftlichen Fatalismus geführt. In ganz Europa, Großbritannien und den USA deuten jedoch Anzeichen auf eine (hoffnungsvolle) Wendung der Ereignisse hin, die für bessere Aussichten für das kommende Jahr sorgen.

Derzeit profitieren Private Debt-Anleger von attraktiven Renditen von 7 bis 10 % pro Jahr. Wir vergleichen die Merkmale von Private Debt mit anderen festverzinslichen Segmenten und Aktien, zeigen ihre Vorteile auf und untersuchen die Risiken im Falle eines wirtschaftlichen Stressszenarios.

Investors strongly believe that central banks are almost finished with their tightening campaign amid a fall in global inflation, and that policy rates will be lowered as soon as the second half of 2023. Still, uncertainty around this Goldilocks scenario remains elevated.

Economists continue to cast a pall of gloom over economic forecasts, questioning future output and growth. In this Strategy Blog, we discuss the supposed gloomy outlook and put into perspective the new opportunities and incentives for useful economic activity.